Vardar Skopje vs Aresimi: prediction and stats
First LeagueRegular Season - 6Kick-off on September 5, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Toše Proeski Arena, Skopje
The Footlab model makes Vardar Skopje the favourite at 74%, against 17% for a draw and 9% for Aresimi. The most likely score is 2-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Vardar Skopje vs Aresimi?
Vardar Skopje starts as the favourite with a 210-point Elo edge (1,765 vs 1,555).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Vardar Skopje have 9 wins, 1 draws and 5 defeats; Aresimi have 8, 2 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2026 | Struga(away) | 0-1 | First League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Shkendija(home) | 0-2 | First League |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Riga(away) | 2-5 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Bregalnica Štip(home) | 2-0 | First League |
| Jul 22, 2026 | Riga(home) | 2-3 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Shkëndija Haraçinë(away) | 2-0 | First League |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Bashkimi Kumanovo(home) | 1-0 | First League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Bregalnica Štip(away) | 0-4 | First League |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Tikveš(away) | 1-5 | First League |
| May 23, 2026 | Struga(home) | 1-0 | First League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 5 meetings: 3 Vardar Skopje win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Aresimi win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 21, 2026 | Aresimi 1-0 Vardar Skopje | First League |
| Feb 11, 2026 | Vardar Skopje 5-1 Aresimi | First League |
| Sep 18, 2025 | Aresimi 1-4 Vardar Skopje | First League |
| Feb 18, 2023 | Vardar Skopje 1-1 Aresimi | Second League |
| Aug 20, 2022 | Aresimi 0-1 Vardar Skopje | Second League |
Last archived meeting: Aresimi vs Vardar Skopje on Mar 21, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Vardar Skopje score 2.1 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Aresimi score 1.1 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 62% probability of over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vardar Skopje | 2.1 | 1.1 | 8 | 4/15 | 7/15 |
| Aresimi | 1.1 | 1.1 | 7 | 5/15 | 4/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Vardar Skopje sit 8th in First League (3 points from 3 matches) and Aresimi sit 6th (6 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Aresimi | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 6 |
| 8 | Vardar Skopje | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Vardar Skopje vs Aresimi?
- The Footlab model makes Vardar Skopje the favourite at 74%, against 17% for a draw and 9% for Aresimi.
- Where and when is Vardar Skopje vs Aresimi played?
- Vardar Skopje vs Aresimi is played on September 5, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Toše Proeski Arena, in the First League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 62% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.