Vardar Skopje vs Bashkimi Kumanovo: prediction and stats
First LeagueRegular Season - 16Kick-off on December 1, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Toše Proeski Arena, Skopje
The Footlab model makes Vardar Skopje the favourite at 85%, against 11% for a draw and 4% for Bashkimi Kumanovo. The most likely score is 2-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Vardar Skopje vs Bashkimi Kumanovo?
Vardar Skopje is a heavy favourite: 1,775 Elo points against 1,469, a 306-point gap.
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Vardar Skopje have 10 wins, 0 draws and 5 defeats; Bashkimi Kumanovo have 2, 4 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | Sileks(home) | 4-1 | First League |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Struga(away) | 0-1 | First League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Shkendija(home) | 0-2 | First League |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Riga(away) | 2-5 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Bregalnica Štip(home) | 2-0 | First League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Bregalnica Štip(away) | 0-3 | First League |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Aresimi(away) | 0-1 | First League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Tikveš(home) | 0-5 | First League |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Sileks(away) | 0-6 | First League |
| May 24, 2026 | Pelister(away) | 0-1 | First League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 3 meetings: 2 Vardar Skopje win(s), 1 draw(s), 0 Bashkimi Kumanovo win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 2, 2026 | Bashkimi Kumanovo 0-2 Vardar Skopje | First League |
| Feb 21, 2026 | Vardar Skopje 1-0 Bashkimi Kumanovo | First League |
| Sep 29, 2025 | Bashkimi Kumanovo 0-0 Vardar Skopje | First League |
Last archived meeting: Bashkimi Kumanovo vs Vardar Skopje on May 2, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Vardar Skopje score 2.4 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Bashkimi Kumanovo score 0.9 and concede 2.3. The model gives a 68% probability of over 2.5 goals and 41% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vardar Skopje | 2.4 | 1.1 | 7 | 5/15 | 8/15 |
| Bashkimi Kumanovo | 0.9 | 2.3 | 1 | 6/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Vardar Skopje sit 6th in First League (6 points from 4 matches) and Bashkimi Kumanovo sit 10th (0 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Vardar Skopje | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 4 | 6 |
| 10 | Bashkimi Kumanovo | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 15 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Vardar Skopje vs Bashkimi Kumanovo?
- The Footlab model makes Vardar Skopje the favourite at 85%, against 11% for a draw and 4% for Bashkimi Kumanovo.
- Where and when is Vardar Skopje vs Bashkimi Kumanovo played?
- Vardar Skopje vs Bashkimi Kumanovo is played on December 1, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Toše Proeski Arena, in the First League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 68% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.