Varhaug vs Staal Jørpeland: prediction and stats
3. Division - Girone 4Regular Season - 21Kick-off on September 25, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC)
The Footlab model makes Varhaug the favourite at 61%, against 18% for a draw and 21% for Staal Jørpeland. The most likely score is 2-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Varhaug vs Staal Jørpeland?
A very open match: only 96 Elo points separate Varhaug (1,626) and Staal Jørpeland (1,530).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Varhaug have 6 wins, 5 draws and 4 defeats; Staal Jørpeland have 5, 3 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 17, 2026 | Stabæk II(home) | 2-0 | 3. Division - Girone 4 |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Åkra(away) | 2-1 | 3. Division - Girone 4 |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Hinna(home) | 3-5 | 3. Division - Girone 4 |
| Jul 27, 2026 | Haugesund II(away) | 2-2 | 3. Division - Girone 4 |
| Jun 28, 2026 | Odd II(home) | 2-2 | 3. Division - Girone 4 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 17, 2026 | Haugesund II(home) | 3-4 | 3. Division - Girone 4 |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Odd II(away) | 2-1 | 3. Division - Girone 4 |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Åkra(home) | 3-4 | 3. Division - Girone 4 |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Mandalskameratene(away) | 3-8 | 3. Division - Girone 4 |
| Jun 25, 2026 | Hinna(home) | 1-1 | 3. Division - Girone 4 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 1 meetings: 1 Varhaug win(s), 0 draw(s), 0 Staal Jørpeland win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 14, 2026 | Staal Jørpeland 1-4 Varhaug | 3. Division - Girone 4 |
Last archived meeting: Staal Jørpeland vs Varhaug on May 14, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Varhaug score 1.9 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Staal Jørpeland score 2.1 and concede 2.7. The model gives a 83% probability of over 2.5 goals and 77% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Varhaug | 1.9 | 1.5 | 2 | 10/15 | 9/15 |
| Staal Jørpeland | 2.1 | 2.7 | 2 | 12/15 | 12/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Varhaug sit 5th in 3. Division - Girone 4 (26 points from 16 matches) and Staal Jørpeland sit 10th (19 points from 16 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Varhaug | 16 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 30 | 23 | 26 |
| 10 | Staal Jørpeland | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 33 | 41 | 19 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Varhaug vs Staal Jørpeland?
- The Footlab model makes Varhaug the favourite at 61%, against 18% for a draw and 21% for Staal Jørpeland.
- Where and when is Varhaug vs Staal Jørpeland played?
- Varhaug vs Staal Jørpeland is played on September 25, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC), in the 3. Division - Girone 4.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 83% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.