Varketili vs Merani Tbilisi: prediction and stats
Liga 3Regular Season - 28Kick-off on November 20, 2026 at 10:00 AM (UTC)Varketili Stadium, Tbilisi
The Footlab model makes Varketili the favourite at 73%, against 18% for a draw and 9% for Merani Tbilisi. The most likely score is 2-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Varketili vs Merani Tbilisi?
Varketili starts as the favourite with a 221-point Elo edge (1,488 vs 1,267).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Varketili have 10 wins, 4 draws and 1 defeats; Merani Tbilisi have 6, 4 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Iberia 2010(away) | 0-0 | Liga 3 |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Kolkheti Khobi(home) | 4-0 | Liga 3 |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Margveti 2006(away) | 1-1 | Liga 3 |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Rustavi(home) | 0-1 | David Kipiani Cup |
| Jun 26, 2026 | Aragvelebi(away) | 4-0 | David Kipiani Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Betlemi(away) | 2-0 | Liga 3 |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Guria(home) | 0-5 | Liga 3 |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Didube 2014(home) | 2-2 | Liga 3 |
| Jun 26, 2026 | Guria(away) | 1-6 | David Kipiani Cup |
| Jun 21, 2026 | Irao(home) | 1-1 | Liga 3 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 5 meetings: 1 Varketili win(s), 2 draw(s), 2 Merani Tbilisi win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 28, 2026 | Merani Tbilisi 0-2 Varketili | Liga 3 |
| Sep 5, 2025 | Merani Tbilisi 3-2 Varketili | Liga 3 |
| Apr 3, 2025 | Varketili 2-2 Merani Tbilisi | Liga 3 |
| Sep 19, 2024 | Varketili 1-2 Merani Tbilisi | Liga 3 |
| Mar 28, 2024 | Merani Tbilisi 0-0 Varketili | Liga 3 |
Last archived meeting: Merani Tbilisi vs Varketili on May 28, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Varketili score 2.6 and concede 0.5 goals per match over their last 15; Merani Tbilisi score 1.2 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 56% probability of over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Varketili | 2.6 | 0.5 | 8 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
| Merani Tbilisi | 1.2 | 1.5 | 6 | 5/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Varketili sit 1st in Liga 3 (44 points from 18 matches) and Merani Tbilisi sit 7th (29 points from 18 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Varketili | 18 | 13 | 5 | 0 | 45 | 9 | 44 |
| 7 | Merani Tbilisi | 18 | 8 | 5 | 5 | 25 | 23 | 29 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Varketili vs Merani Tbilisi?
- The Footlab model makes Varketili the favourite at 73%, against 18% for a draw and 9% for Merani Tbilisi.
- Where and when is Varketili vs Merani Tbilisi played?
- Varketili vs Merani Tbilisi is played on November 20, 2026 at 10:00 AM (UTC) at Varketili Stadium, in the Liga 3.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 56% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.