Guria vs Irao: prediction and stats
Liga 3Regular Season - 28Kick-off on November 20, 2026 at 10:00 AM (UTC)Stadioni Evgrapi Shevardnadze, Lanchkhuti
The Footlab model makes Guria the favourite at 64%, against 22% for a draw and 14% for Irao. The most likely score is 2-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Guria vs Irao?
A very open match: only 18 Elo points separate Guria (1,375) and Irao (1,357).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Guria have 11 wins, 1 draws and 3 defeats; Irao have 6, 3 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Saburtalo II(home) | 2-0 | Liga 3 |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Merani Tbilisi(away) | 5-0 | Liga 3 |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Lokomotivi Tbilisi(home) | 0-1 | Liga 3 |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Aragvi Dusheti(home) | 1-2 | David Kipiani Cup |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Dinamo Tbilisi(home) | 1-0 | David Kipiani Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Margveti 2006(away) | 1-2 | Liga 3 |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Gardabani(home) | 3-0 | Liga 3 |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Betlemi(away) | 1-1 | Liga 3 |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Dinamo Batumi(home) | 1-4 | David Kipiani Cup |
| Jun 24, 2026 | Rustavi II(away) | 3-2 | David Kipiani Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 3 meetings: 1 Guria win(s), 0 draw(s), 2 Irao win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 28, 2026 | Irao 1-2 Guria | Liga 3 |
| Nov 14, 2024 | Guria 0-4 Irao | Liga 3 |
| May 23, 2024 | Irao 4-1 Guria | Liga 3 |
How many goals should we expect?
Guria score 2.9 and concede 0.7 goals per match over their last 15; Irao score 1.6 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 55% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guria | 2.9 | 0.7 | 6 | 7/15 | 10/15 |
| Irao | 1.6 | 1.5 | 3 | 11/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Guria sit 2nd in Liga 3 (39 points from 18 matches) and Irao sit 6th (30 points from 18 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Guria | 18 | 12 | 3 | 3 | 49 | 11 | 39 |
| 6 | Irao | 18 | 9 | 3 | 6 | 31 | 18 | 30 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Guria vs Irao?
- The Footlab model makes Guria the favourite at 64%, against 22% for a draw and 14% for Irao.
- Where and when is Guria vs Irao played?
- Guria vs Irao is played on November 20, 2026 at 10:00 AM (UTC) at Stadioni Evgrapi Shevardnadze, in the Liga 3.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 55% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.