Varnsdorf vs Ústí nad Labem: prediction and stats
CupRound of 64Kick-off on August 25, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Stadion v Kotlině, Varnsdorf
The Footlab model makes Ústí nad Labem the favourite at 77%, against 14% for a draw and 9% for Varnsdorf. The most likely score is 0-2.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Varnsdorf vs Ústí nad Labem?
Ústí nad Labem starts as the favourite with a 169-point Elo edge (1,929 vs 1,760).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Varnsdorf have 9 wins, 3 draws and 3 defeats; Ústí nad Labem have 7, 4 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | Chrudim(away) | 1-3 | 3. liga - CFL B |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Brandýs nad Labem(away) | 1-1 | Cup |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Benátky nad Jizerou(home) | 1-0 | 3. liga - CFL B |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Štětí(away) | 6-0 | Cup |
| Jun 7, 2026 | Hradec Králové II(home) | 5-0 | 3. liga - CFL B |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Dukla Praha(home) | 3-1 | FNL |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Třinec(away) | 0-0 | FNL |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Karlovy Vary(away) | 3-0 | Cup |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Arsenal Česká Lípa(home) | 3-3 | FNL |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Hanácká(away) | 2-0 | FNL |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 5 Varnsdorf win(s), 1 draw(s), 0 Ústí nad Labem win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 22, 2025 | Ústí nad Labem 1-1 Varnsdorf | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 13, 2024 | Ústí nad Labem 1-4 Varnsdorf | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 5, 2024 | Varnsdorf 5-2 Ústí nad Labem | Friendlies Clubs |
| Feb 16, 2024 | Ústí nad Labem 1-4 Varnsdorf | Friendlies Clubs |
| Feb 10, 2024 | Varnsdorf 6-3 Ústí nad Labem | Friendlies Clubs |
| Feb 25, 2023 | Ústí nad Labem 1-7 Varnsdorf | Friendlies Clubs |
Last archived meeting: Ústí nad Labem vs Varnsdorf on Feb 22, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Varnsdorf score 2.3 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Ústí nad Labem score 1.7 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 75% probability of over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Varnsdorf | 2.3 | 1.1 | 8 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
| Ústí nad Labem | 1.7 | 1.7 | 3 | 10/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Varnsdorf vs Ústí nad Labem?
- The Footlab model makes Ústí nad Labem the favourite at 77%, against 14% for a draw and 9% for Varnsdorf.
- Where and when is Varnsdorf vs Ústí nad Labem played?
- Varnsdorf vs Ústí nad Labem is played on August 25, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion v Kotlině, in the Cup.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 75% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.