Sparta Brno vs Baník Ostrava: prediction and stats
CupRound of 64Kick-off on August 26, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Komárovský stadion, Brno
The Footlab model makes Baník Ostrava the favourite at 84%, against 10% for a draw and 5% for Sparta Brno. The most likely score is 0-3.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Sparta Brno vs Baník Ostrava?
Baník Ostrava is a heavy favourite: 1,917 Elo points against 1,593 — a 324-point gap.
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Sparta Brno have 6 wins, 2 draws and 7 defeats; Baník Ostrava have 8, 1 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Chotebor(home) | 2-0 | 4. liga - Divizie D |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Žďár nad Sázavou(away) | 1-1 | 4. liga - Divizie D |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Sokol Lanžhot(home) | 2-0 | Cup |
| Aug 8, 2026 | FS Třebíč(home) | 1-2 | 4. liga - Divizie D |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Vrchovina(home) | 1-0 | Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2026 | Artis(home) | 1-0 | Czech Liga |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Hradec Králové(away) | 1-2 | Czech Liga |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Slavia Praha(home) | 0-4 | Czech Liga |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Zlin(away) | 1-0 | Czech Liga |
| Jul 18, 2026 | AS Trencin(away) | 2-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
How many goals should we expect?
Sparta Brno score 2.3 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; Baník Ostrava score 1.8 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 79% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sparta Brno | 2.3 | 1.9 | 4 | 11/15 | 11/15 |
| Baník Ostrava | 1.8 | 1.1 | 7 | 6/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Sparta Brno vs Baník Ostrava?
- The Footlab model makes Baník Ostrava the favourite at 84%, against 10% for a draw and 5% for Sparta Brno.
- Where and when is Sparta Brno vs Baník Ostrava played?
- Sparta Brno vs Baník Ostrava is played on August 26, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Komárovský stadion, in the Cup.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 79% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.