Velez Sarsfield vs San Lorenzo: prediction and stats
Liga Profesional ArgentinaClausura - 15Kick-off on November 1, 2026 at 09:00 PM (UTC)Estadio José Amalfitani, Capital Federal, Ciudad de Buenos Aires
The Footlab model makes Velez Sarsfield the favourite at 44%, against 29% for a draw and 27% for San Lorenzo. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Velez Sarsfield vs San Lorenzo?
Velez Sarsfield starts as the favourite with a 107-point Elo edge (1,940 vs 1,832).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Velez Sarsfield have 6 wins, 6 draws and 3 defeats; San Lorenzo have 3, 7 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | River Plate(away) | 2-2 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Defensa Y Justicia(home) | 1-1 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Boca Juniors(away) | 1-1 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Aug 3, 2026 | Independiente(home) | 1-0 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Jul 30, 2026 | Talleres Cordoba(away) | 3-1 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto(away) | 0-0 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Union Santa Fe(home) | 1-0 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Huracan(home) | 0-2 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Central Cordoba de Santiago(away) | 0-1 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Gimnasia M.(home) | 1-0 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Velez Sarsfield win(s), 3 draw(s), 1 San Lorenzo win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 20, 2026 | San Lorenzo 0-0 Velez Sarsfield | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Aug 7, 2025 | San Lorenzo 1-0 Velez Sarsfield | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Feb 8, 2025 | Velez Sarsfield 0-0 San Lorenzo | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Sep 14, 2024 | San Lorenzo 0-1 Velez Sarsfield | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Aug 7, 2024 | San Lorenzo 1-3 Velez Sarsfield | Copa Argentina |
| Apr 29, 2023 | Velez Sarsfield 0-0 San Lorenzo | Liga Profesional Argentina |
Last archived meeting: San Lorenzo vs Velez Sarsfield on Apr 20, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Velez Sarsfield score 1.4 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; San Lorenzo score 0.6 and concede 0.8. The model gives a 42% probability of over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Velez Sarsfield | 1.4 | 0.9 | 5 | 8/15 | 5/15 |
| San Lorenzo | 0.6 | 0.8 | 6 | 5/15 | 2/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Velez Sarsfield sit 3rd in Liga Profesional Argentina (28 points from 16 matches) and San Lorenzo sit 7th (22 points from 16 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Velez Sarsfield | 16 | 7 | 7 | 2 | 18 | 12 | 28 |
| 3 | Velez Sarsfield | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 9 | 5 | 12 |
| 7 | San Lorenzo | 16 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 14 | 14 | 22 |
| 11 | San Lorenzo | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 7 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Velez Sarsfield vs San Lorenzo?
- The Footlab model makes Velez Sarsfield the favourite at 44%, against 29% for a draw and 27% for San Lorenzo.
- Where and when is Velez Sarsfield vs San Lorenzo played?
- Velez Sarsfield vs San Lorenzo is played on November 1, 2026 at 09:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio José Amalfitani, in the Liga Profesional Argentina.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 42% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
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- Nov 1, 2026Belgrano CordobavsBarracas Central
- Nov 1, 2026Defensa Y JusticiavsIndependiente
- Nov 1, 2026HuracanvsTigre
- Nov 1, 2026LanusvsGimnasia M.
- Nov 1, 2026Estudiantes L.P.vsInstituto Cordoba
- Nov 1, 2026Boca JuniorsvsRiver Plate
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