Boca Juniors vs River Plate: prediction and stats
Liga Profesional ArgentinaClausura - 15Kick-off on November 1, 2026 at 09:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Mâs Monumental, Buenos Aires
The Footlab model makes Boca Juniors the favourite at 47%, against 30% for a draw and 24% for River Plate. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Boca Juniors vs River Plate?
A very open match: only 55 Elo points separate Boca Juniors (1,981) and River Plate (1,926).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Boca Juniors have 5 wins, 5 draws and 5 defeats; River Plate have 5, 4 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | Racing Club(away) | 1-1 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Deportivo Recoleta(away) | 4-0 | CONMEBOL Sudamericana |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Platense(away) | 1-1 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Deportivo Recoleta(home) | 3-1 | CONMEBOL Sudamericana |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Velez Sarsfield(home) | 1-1 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Velez Sarsfield(home) | 2-2 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Aug 20, 2026 | Santa Fe(away) | 0-0 | CONMEBOL Sudamericana |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Argentinos JRS(home) | 2-0 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Tigre(away) | 0-1 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Rosario Central(home) | 0-1 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Boca Juniors win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 River Plate win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 19, 2026 | River Plate 0-1 Boca Juniors | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Nov 9, 2025 | Boca Juniors 2-0 River Plate | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Apr 27, 2025 | River Plate 2-1 Boca Juniors | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Sep 21, 2024 | Boca Juniors 0-1 River Plate | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Apr 21, 2024 | River Plate 2-3 Boca Juniors | Copa de la Liga Profesional |
| Feb 25, 2024 | River Plate 1-1 Boca Juniors | Copa de la Liga Profesional |
Last archived meeting: River Plate vs Boca Juniors on Apr 19, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Boca Juniors score 1.3 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; River Plate score 1.1 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 38% probability of over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boca Juniors | 1.3 | 1.1 | 4 | 7/15 | 5/15 |
| River Plate | 1.1 | 1.0 | 5 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Boca Juniors sit 2nd in Liga Profesional Argentina (30 points from 16 matches) and River Plate sit 2nd (29 points from 16 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | River Plate | 16 | 9 | 2 | 5 | 22 | 12 | 29 |
| 2 | Boca Juniors | 16 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 22 | 9 | 30 |
| 10 | Boca Juniors | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 8 | 7 |
| 14 | River Plate | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Boca Juniors vs River Plate?
- The Footlab model makes Boca Juniors the favourite at 47%, against 30% for a draw and 24% for River Plate.
- Where and when is Boca Juniors vs River Plate played?
- Boca Juniors vs River Plate is played on November 1, 2026 at 09:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Mâs Monumental, in the Liga Profesional Argentina.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 38% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
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- Nov 1, 2026LanusvsGimnasia M.
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