Sarmiento Junin vs Rosario Central: prediction and stats
Liga Profesional ArgentinaClausura - 15Kick-off on November 1, 2026 at 09:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Eva Perón de Junín, Junín, Provincia de Buenos Aires
The Footlab model makes Rosario Central the favourite at 37%, against 29% for a draw and 34% for Sarmiento Junin. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Sarmiento Junin vs Rosario Central?
Rosario Central starts as the favourite with a 153-point Elo edge (1,954 vs 1,801).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Sarmiento Junin have 8 wins, 0 draws and 7 defeats; Rosario Central have 7, 3 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Estudiantes L.P.(home) | 2-0 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Huracan(home) | 2-0 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Atletico Tucuman(away) | 2-1 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Aug 3, 2026 | Independ. Rivadavia(home) | 2-1 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Banfield(away) | 2-3 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Corinthians(away) | 0-1 | CONMEBOL Libertadores |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Barracas Central(away) | 1-0 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Corinthians(home) | 0-0 | CONMEBOL Libertadores |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Aldosivi(home) | 2-1 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Aug 2, 2026 | River Plate(away) | 1-0 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Sarmiento Junin win(s), 0 draw(s), 5 Rosario Central win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 19, 2026 | Rosario Central 2-1 Sarmiento Junin | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Oct 24, 2025 | Sarmiento Junin 0-1 Rosario Central | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Feb 23, 2025 | Rosario Central 1-0 Sarmiento Junin | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Jul 20, 2024 | Rosario Central 4-2 Sarmiento Junin | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Mar 3, 2023 | Sarmiento Junin 4-1 Rosario Central | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Jul 8, 2022 | Rosario Central 1-0 Sarmiento Junin | Liga Profesional Argentina |
Last archived meeting: Rosario Central vs Sarmiento Junin on Apr 19, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Sarmiento Junin score 1.3 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Rosario Central score 1.1 and concede 0.8. The model gives a 43% probability of over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sarmiento Junin | 1.3 | 1.4 | 5 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
| Rosario Central | 1.1 | 0.8 | 6 | 5/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Sarmiento Junin sit 11th in Liga Profesional Argentina (19 points from 16 matches) and Rosario Central sit 4th (28 points from 16 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sarmiento Junin | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 8 | 12 |
| 4 | Rosario Central | 16 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 20 | 16 | 28 |
| 4 | Rosario Central | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 10 |
| 11 | Sarmiento Junin | 16 | 6 | 1 | 9 | 13 | 20 | 19 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Sarmiento Junin vs Rosario Central?
- The Footlab model makes Rosario Central the favourite at 37%, against 29% for a draw and 34% for Sarmiento Junin.
- Where and when is Sarmiento Junin vs Rosario Central played?
- Sarmiento Junin vs Rosario Central is played on November 1, 2026 at 09:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Eva Perón de Junín, in the Liga Profesional Argentina.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 43% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.