Vfb Marburg vs Fernwald: prediction and stats
Oberliga - HessenHessen - 7Kick-off on September 5, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC)Stadion an der Gisselberger Straße, Marburg
The Footlab model makes Fernwald the favourite at 43%, against 24% for a draw and 32% for Vfb Marburg. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Vfb Marburg vs Fernwald?
A very open match: only 51 Elo points separate Vfb Marburg (1,745) and Fernwald (1,796).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Vfb Marburg have 7 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats; Fernwald have 4, 6 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | 1960 Hanau(away) | 1-0 | Oberliga - Hessen |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Kassel 2(home) | 1-1 | Oberliga - Hessen |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Eintracht Stadtallendorf(home) | 2-2 | Oberliga - Hessen |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Hünfelder SV(away) | 1-0 | Oberliga - Hessen |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Bayern Alzenau(home) | 2-1 | Oberliga - Hessen |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | Hünfelder SV(home) | 1-3 | Oberliga - Hessen |
| Aug 12, 2026 | TuBa Pohlheim(home) | 1-1 | Oberliga - Hessen |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Bayern Alzenau(away) | 1-1 | Oberliga - Hessen |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Eintracht Stadtallendorf(home) | 2-0 | Oberliga - Hessen |
| Jul 4, 2026 | Sportfreunde Siegen(away) | 6-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Vfb Marburg win(s), 1 draw(s), 4 Fernwald win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 29, 2025 | Vfb Marburg 1-0 Fernwald | Oberliga - Hessen |
| Aug 16, 2025 | Fernwald 5-0 Vfb Marburg | Oberliga - Hessen |
| Apr 26, 2025 | Fernwald 2-0 Vfb Marburg | Oberliga - Hessen |
| Oct 6, 2024 | Vfb Marburg 1-1 Fernwald | Oberliga - Hessen |
| Apr 27, 2024 | Fernwald 5-1 Vfb Marburg | Oberliga - Hessen |
| Oct 7, 2023 | Vfb Marburg 0-4 Fernwald | Oberliga - Hessen |
Last archived meeting: Vfb Marburg vs Fernwald on Nov 29, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Vfb Marburg score 1.5 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Fernwald score 1.6 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 64% probability of over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vfb Marburg | 1.5 | 1.3 | 4 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
| Fernwald | 1.6 | 1.3 | 5 | 9/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Vfb Marburg sit 4th in Oberliga - Hessen (11 points from 5 matches) and Fernwald sit 11th (5 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Vfb Marburg | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 4 | 11 |
| 11 | Fernwald | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Vfb Marburg vs Fernwald?
- The Footlab model makes Fernwald the favourite at 43%, against 24% for a draw and 32% for Vfb Marburg.
- Where and when is Vfb Marburg vs Fernwald played?
- Vfb Marburg vs Fernwald is played on September 5, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion an der Gisselberger Straße, in the Oberliga - Hessen.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 64% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.