Villarrubia vs Toledo: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 18Group 18 - 19Kick-off on January 24, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Campo Nuevo Municipal, Villarrubia de los Ojos
The Footlab model makes Toledo the favourite at 40%, against 32% for a draw and 28% for Villarrubia. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Villarrubia vs Toledo?
Toledo starts as the favourite with a 116-point Elo edge (1,898 vs 1,782).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Villarrubia have 5 wins, 4 draws and 6 defeats; Toledo have 6, 6 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 9, 2026 | Huracán Balazote(home) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
| May 3, 2026 | Guadalajara II(away) | 0-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
| Apr 25, 2026 | Marchamalo(home) | 2-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Azuqueca(away) | 2-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
| Apr 11, 2026 | Sonseca(home) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 24, 2026 | Albacete II(home) | 0-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
| May 17, 2026 | Albacete II(away) | 0-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
| May 10, 2026 | Pedroñeras(away) | 0-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
| May 3, 2026 | Calvo Sotelo(home) | 0-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | San Clemente(away) | 4-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Villarrubia win(s), 2 draw(s), 3 Toledo win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 24, 2026 | Villarrubia 2-1 Toledo | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
| Sep 14, 2025 | Toledo 1-1 Villarrubia | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
| Mar 22, 2025 | Villarrubia 0-2 Toledo | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
| Nov 10, 2024 | Toledo 1-1 Villarrubia | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
| May 12, 2024 | Villarrubia 0-1 Toledo | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
| Jan 21, 2024 | Toledo 3-0 Villarrubia | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
Last archived meeting: Villarrubia vs Toledo on Jan 24, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Villarrubia score 0.9 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Toledo score 1.3 and concede 0.4. The model gives a 33% probability of over 2.5 goals and 41% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Villarrubia | 0.9 | 1.1 | 5 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
| Toledo | 1.3 | 0.4 | 10 | 2/15 | 3/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Villarrubia sit 6th in Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 (53 points from 34 matches) and Toledo sit 3rd (68 points from 34 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Toledo | 34 | 19 | 11 | 4 | 55 | 17 | 68 |
| 6 | Villarrubia | 34 | 15 | 8 | 11 | 42 | 35 | 53 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Villarrubia vs Toledo?
- The Footlab model makes Toledo the favourite at 40%, against 32% for a draw and 28% for Villarrubia.
- Where and when is Villarrubia vs Toledo played?
- Villarrubia vs Toledo is played on January 24, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Campo Nuevo Municipal, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 18.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 33% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.