Villarrubia vs Toledo: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 18Group 18 - 19Kick-off on January 24, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Campo Nuevo Municipal, Villarrubia de los Ojos
The Footlab AI model makes Toledo the favourite at 48%, against 27% for a draw and 25% for Villarrubia. The most likely score is 1-1. If Toledo wins, the most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 53.9% of the 5,215 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Nov 9, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Villarrubia vs Toledo?
Toledo starts as the favourite with a 146-point Elo edge (1,895 vs 1,749).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Villarrubia vs Toledo
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Villarrubia
Not enough data to predict the Villarrubia lineup.
Toledo
Not enough data to predict the Toledo lineup.
Computed on November 9, 2026 at 06:41 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Villarrubia have 5 wins, 6 draws and 4 defeats; Toledo have 8, 2 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8, 2026 | Quintanar del Rey(away) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
| Nov 1, 2026 | Socuéllamos(home) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
| Oct 24, 2026 | Tarancón(away) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
| Oct 18, 2026 | Guadalajara II(home) | 4-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
| Oct 11, 2026 | CD Villa(away) | 1-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8, 2026 | Marchamalo(home) | 2-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
| Oct 31, 2026 | San Clemente(away) | 3-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
| Oct 25, 2026 | Almansa(home) | 2-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Manchego(away) | 0-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Huracán Balazote(home) | 3-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Villarrubia win, 3 draws, 2 Toledo wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 12, 2026 | Toledo 1-1 Villarrubia | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
| Jan 24, 2026 | Villarrubia 2-1 Toledo | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
| Sep 14, 2025 | Toledo 1-1 Villarrubia | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
| Mar 22, 2025 | Villarrubia 0-2 Toledo | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
| Nov 10, 2024 | Toledo 1-1 Villarrubia | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
| May 12, 2024 | Villarrubia 0-1 Toledo | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
Last archived meeting: Toledo vs Villarrubia on Sep 12, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Villarrubia score 1.3 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Toledo score 1.7 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 46% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Villarrubia | 1.3 | 1.3 | 3 | 9/15 | 7/15 |
| Toledo | 1.7 | 0.9 | 5 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Villarrubia sit 13th in Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 (10 points from 9 matches) and Toledo sit 2nd (19 points from 9 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Toledo | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 20 | 10 | 19 |
| 13 | Villarrubia | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 10 | 12 | 10 |
A question about Villarrubia vs Toledo?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Villarrubia vs Toledo?
- The Footlab AI model makes Toledo the favourite at 48%, against 27% for a draw and 25% for Villarrubia.
- Where and when is Villarrubia vs Toledo played?
- Villarrubia vs Toledo is played on January 24, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Campo Nuevo Municipal, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 18.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 46% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 53.9% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.