Virtus Francavilla vs Martina Franca: prediction and stats
Serie D - Girone HGroup H - 21Kick-off on January 24, 2027 at 01:30 PM (UTC)Stadio Giovanni Paolo II, Francavilla Fontana
The Footlab model makes Martina Franca the favourite at 41%, against 27% for a draw and 32% for Virtus Francavilla. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Virtus Francavilla vs Martina Franca?
Martina Franca starts as the favourite with a 108-point Elo edge (1,816 vs 1,707).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Virtus Francavilla have 6 wins, 4 draws and 5 defeats; Martina Franca have 9, 2 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 3, 2026 | Sarnese(home) | 2-2 | Serie D - Girone H |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Pompei(away) | 1-4 | Serie D - Girone H |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Francavilla(home) | 0-3 | Serie D - Girone H |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Fidelis Andria(home) | 0-2 | Serie D - Girone H |
| Apr 2, 2026 | Afragolese(away) | 2-2 | Serie D - Girone H |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 17, 2026 | Paganese(home) | 0-1 | Serie D - Girone H |
| May 10, 2026 | Nardò(home) | 2-1 | Serie D - Girone H |
| May 3, 2026 | Nola 1925(away) | 1-2 | Serie D - Girone H |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Heraclea(home) | 2-1 | Serie D - Girone H |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Città di Fasano(away) | 0-1 | Serie D - Girone H |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 5 meetings: 1 Virtus Francavilla win(s), 2 draw(s), 2 Martina Franca win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 18, 2026 | Martina Franca 0-4 Virtus Francavilla | Serie D - Girone H |
| Sep 21, 2025 | Virtus Francavilla 1-1 Martina Franca | Serie D - Girone H |
| Mar 9, 2025 | Virtus Francavilla 1-1 Martina Franca | Serie D - Girone H |
| Nov 13, 2024 | Virtus Francavilla 0-1 Martina Franca | Coppa Italia Serie D |
| Nov 3, 2024 | Martina Franca 1-0 Virtus Francavilla | Serie D - Girone H |
Last archived meeting: Martina Franca vs Virtus Francavilla on Jan 18, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Virtus Francavilla score 1.4 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Martina Franca score 1.7 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Virtus Francavilla | 1.4 | 1.3 | 5 | 6/15 | 9/15 |
| Martina Franca | 1.7 | 1.1 | 6 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Virtus Francavilla sit 9th in Serie D - Girone H (48 points from 34 matches) and Martina Franca sit 2nd (62 points from 34 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Martina Franca | 34 | 18 | 8 | 8 | 47 | 30 | 62 |
| 9 | Virtus Francavilla | 34 | 12 | 12 | 10 | 45 | 40 | 48 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Virtus Francavilla vs Martina Franca?
- The Footlab model makes Martina Franca the favourite at 41%, against 27% for a draw and 32% for Virtus Francavilla.
- Where and when is Virtus Francavilla vs Martina Franca played?
- Virtus Francavilla vs Martina Franca is played on January 24, 2027 at 01:30 PM (UTC) at Stadio Giovanni Paolo II, in the Serie D - Girone H.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.