Martina Franca vs Nardò: prediction and stats
Serie D - Girone HGroup H - 22Kick-off on January 31, 2027 at 01:30 PM (UTC)Stadio Gian Domenico Tursi, Martina Franca
The Footlab model makes Martina Franca the favourite at 50%, against 28% for a draw and 22% for Nardò. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Martina Franca vs Nardò?
A very open match: only 47 Elo points separate Martina Franca (1,816) and Nardò (1,769).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Martina Franca have 9 wins, 2 draws and 4 defeats; Nardò have 7, 4 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 17, 2026 | Paganese(home) | 0-1 | Serie D - Girone H |
| May 10, 2026 | Nardò(home) | 2-1 | Serie D - Girone H |
| May 3, 2026 | Nola 1925(away) | 1-2 | Serie D - Girone H |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Heraclea(home) | 2-1 | Serie D - Girone H |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Città di Fasano(away) | 0-1 | Serie D - Girone H |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2026 | Martina Franca(away) | 1-2 | Serie D - Girone H |
| May 3, 2026 | Barletta(home) | 1-0 | Serie D - Girone H |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Ferrandina(away) | 0-1 | Serie D - Girone H |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Manfredonia(home) | 2-0 | Serie D - Girone H |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Sarnese(away) | 0-0 | Serie D - Girone H |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Martina Franca win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Nardò win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2026 | Martina Franca 2-1 Nardò | Serie D - Girone H |
| Jan 11, 2026 | Nardò 1-1 Martina Franca | Serie D - Girone H |
| Sep 14, 2025 | Martina Franca 3-0 Nardò | Serie D - Girone H |
| Aug 31, 2025 | Nardò 1-2 Martina Franca | Coppa Italia Serie D |
| Apr 6, 2025 | Martina Franca 0-2 Nardò | Serie D - Girone H |
| Nov 24, 2024 | Nardò 1-2 Martina Franca | Serie D - Girone H |
Last archived meeting: Martina Franca vs Nardò on May 10, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Martina Franca score 1.7 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Nardò score 1.1 and concede 0.7. The model gives a 42% probability of over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Martina Franca | 1.7 | 1.1 | 6 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
| Nardò | 1.1 | 0.7 | 9 | 4/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Martina Franca sit 2nd in Serie D - Girone H (62 points from 34 matches) and Nardò sit 5th (55 points from 34 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Martina Franca | 34 | 18 | 8 | 8 | 47 | 30 | 62 |
| 5 | Nardò | 34 | 14 | 13 | 7 | 40 | 27 | 55 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Martina Franca vs Nardò?
- The Footlab model makes Martina Franca the favourite at 50%, against 28% for a draw and 22% for Nardò.
- Where and when is Martina Franca vs Nardò played?
- Martina Franca vs Nardò is played on January 31, 2027 at 01:30 PM (UTC) at Stadio Gian Domenico Tursi, in the Serie D - Girone H.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 42% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.