Vitoria Setubal vs Aljustrelense: prediction and stats
Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group DGroup D - 11Kick-off on December 13, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estádio do Bonfim, Setúbal
The Footlab AI model makes Vitoria Setubal the favourite at 72%, against 19% for a draw and 9% for Aljustrelense. The most likely score is 2-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.5% of the 2,664 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 18, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Vitoria Setubal vs Aljustrelense?
Vitoria Setubal starts as the favourite with a 260-point Elo edge (1,922 vs 1,662).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Vitoria Setubal vs Aljustrelense
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Vitoria Setubal
4-3-3- HHeliardo
- TTuga
- JJoca Monteiro
- RR. Omrani
- FFrancisco Ascenso
- DDiogo Fernandes Martins
- LLourenço Henriques
- SSamir Banjai
- JJoão Marouca
- DDiogo Sequeira
- TTiago Neto
Aljustrelense
4-3-3- PPedro Alexandre Fialho Guerreiro
- PPaulo Costa
- EE. Udokporo
- BBabacar Thiam Fall
- SSene Dabo
- IInsa Sagna
- BBlessed Andrade Mendes Teixeira
- VVumi Côco Mpasi
- RRui Miguel Pereira Alexandre
- JJonathan Restrepo Firmino
- IIgor Miguel Henriques Palma
Computed on October 18, 2026 at 02:49 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Vitoria Setubal have 6 wins, 4 draws and 5 defeats; Aljustrelense have 2, 3 and 10.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Real(home) | 1-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Alcains(away) | 2-0 | Taça de Portugal |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Juventude Évora(home) | 2-2 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Lajense(away) | 1-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D |
| Aug 23, 2026 | Amora(home) | 1-3 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Juventude Évora(away) | 0-3 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Alcochetense(home) | 0-2 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Os Limianos(away) | 0-3 | Taça de Portugal |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Portel(away) | 1-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Ferreiras(away) | 3-0 | Taça de Portugal |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 2 Vitoria Setubal wins, 0 draws, 0 Aljustrelense wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 10, 2021 | Vitoria Setubal 2-0 Aljustrelense | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group H |
| Jan 10, 2021 | Aljustrelense 1-5 Vitoria Setubal | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group H |
Last archived meeting: Vitoria Setubal vs Aljustrelense on Apr 10, 2021
How many goals should we expect?
Vitoria Setubal score 1.3 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Aljustrelense score 0.6 and concede 1.9. The model gives a 55% probability of over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vitoria Setubal | 1.3 | 1.4 | 4 | 10/15 | 9/15 |
| Aljustrelense | 0.6 | 1.9 | 2 | 5/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vitoria Setubal | 26 | 16 | 5 | 5 | 45 | 21 | 53 |
A question about Vitoria Setubal vs Aljustrelense?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Vitoria Setubal vs Aljustrelense?
- The Footlab AI model makes Vitoria Setubal the favourite at 72%, against 19% for a draw and 9% for Aljustrelense.
- Where and when is Vitoria Setubal vs Aljustrelense played?
- Vitoria Setubal vs Aljustrelense is played on December 13, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio do Bonfim, in the Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 55% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.5% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.