Vitoria Setubal vs Lagoa: prediction and stats
Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group DGroup D - 7Kick-off on November 1, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estádio do Bonfim, Setúbal
The Footlab AI model makes Vitoria Setubal the favourite at 40%, against 26% for a draw and 34% for Lagoa. The most likely score is 1-1. If Vitoria Setubal wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 1,754 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 9, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Vitoria Setubal vs Lagoa?
A very open match: only 90 Elo points separate Vitoria Setubal (1,986) and Lagoa (1,896).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Vitoria Setubal vs Lagoa
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Vitoria Setubal
4-3-3- HHeliardo
- TTuga
- JJoca Monteiro
- RR. Omrani
- FFrancisco Ascenso
- DDiogo Fernandes Martins
- LLourenço Henriques
- SSamir Banjai
- JJoão Marouca
- DDiogo Sequeira
- TTiago Neto
Lagoa
Not enough data to predict the Lagoa lineup.
Computed on October 9, 2026 at 01:43 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Vitoria Setubal have 6 wins, 4 draws and 5 defeats; Lagoa have 6, 3 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 2026 | Alcains(away) | 2-0 | Taça de Portugal |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Juventude Évora(home) | 2-2 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Lajense(away) | 1-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D |
| Aug 23, 2026 | Amora(home) | 1-3 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D |
| Aug 16, 2026 | FC Serpa(away) | 2-4 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 19, 2026 | Atlético CP(away) | 1-4 | Taça de Portugal |
| Sep 13, 2026 | FC Serpa(home) | 0-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Santa Clara B(away) | 2-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D |
| Aug 23, 2026 | Imortal Albufeira(away) | 0-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Aljustrelense(away) | 1-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D |
How many goals should we expect?
Vitoria Setubal score 1.5 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Lagoa score 1.3 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 58% probability of over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vitoria Setubal | 1.5 | 1.5 | 4 | 10/15 | 10/15 |
| Lagoa | 1.3 | 1.3 | 4 | 9/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Lagoa | 26 | 7 | 9 | 10 | 26 | 35 | 30 |
A question about Vitoria Setubal vs Lagoa?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Vitoria Setubal vs Lagoa?
- The Footlab AI model makes Vitoria Setubal the favourite at 40%, against 26% for a draw and 34% for Lagoa.
- Where and when is Vitoria Setubal vs Lagoa played?
- Vitoria Setubal vs Lagoa is played on November 1, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio do Bonfim, in the Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 58% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.