Match

Vitoria Setubal vs Real: prediction and stats

Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group DGroup D - 5Kick-off on October 11, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Estádio do Bonfim, Setúbal

Vitoria SetubalReal

The Footlab AI model makes Vitoria Setubal the favourite at 61%, against 23% for a draw and 16% for Real. The most likely score is 1-0.

Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 1,754 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Oct 9, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Vitoria Setubal vs Real?

Vitoria Setubal starts as the favourite with a 208-point Elo edge (1,986 vs 1,778).

61%23%16%
Vitoria Setubal winDrawReal win

Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.

See the probabilities after AI analysisThe AI adds press reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

Probable lineup for Vitoria Setubal vs Real

Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.

Vitoria Setubal

4-3-3
  1. HHeliardo
  2. TTuga
  3. JJoca Monteiro
  1. RR. Omrani
  2. FFrancisco Ascenso
  3. DDiogo Fernandes Martins
  1. LLourenço Henriques
  2. SSamir Banjai
  3. JJoão Marouca
  4. DDiogo Sequeira
  1. TTiago Neto

Real

4-3-3
  1. RRonaldo Mendes
  2. DDiogo Nascimento
  3. JJoão Araújo
  1. GGabriel Saalfeld
  2. CC. Acosta
  3. TTomás Marçalo
  1. EElson Patrício Tavares Mendes
  2. IIvo Cláudio
  3. AA. Ibrahim
  4. RRogério Fernandes
  1. HHugo Mosca

Computed on October 9, 2026 at 01:42 AM (UTC).

See the lineup updated by the AIPress reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Vitoria Setubal have 6 wins, 4 draws and 5 defeats; Real have 6, 6 and 3.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Vitoria Setubal
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Sep 20, 2026Alcains(away)2-0Taça de Portugal
Sep 13, 2026Juventude Évora(home)2-2Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D
Sep 6, 2026Lajense(away)1-0Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D
Aug 23, 2026Amora(home)1-3Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D
Aug 16, 2026FC Serpa(away)2-4Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D
Real
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Oct 7, 2026EC Novo Horizonte(away)9-0Gaúcho - 3
Oct 4, 2026Santa Clara B(away)1-1Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D
Sep 30, 2026Farroupilha(home)4-0Gaúcho - 3
Sep 26, 2026FC Serpa(home)1-1Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D
Sep 20, 2026Cruz A.(away)3-0Gaúcho - 3

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 5 Vitoria Setubal wins, 0 draws, 1 Real win.

DateScoreCompetition
Jan 14, 2024Vitoria Setubal 2-0 RealCampeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D
Aug 27, 2023Real 2-3 Vitoria SetubalCampeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D
May 1, 2023Real 1-2 Vitoria SetubalLiga 3
Apr 7, 2023Vitoria Setubal 1-0 RealLiga 3
Feb 26, 2023Real 1-2 Vitoria SetubalLiga 3
Nov 13, 2022Vitoria Setubal 3-5 RealLiga 3

Last archived meeting: Vitoria Setubal vs Real on Jan 14, 2024

How many goals should we expect?

Vitoria Setubal score 1.5 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Real score 2.1 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 52% probability of over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score.

ClubGoals scored / matchGoals conceded / matchClean sheetsBoth teams scoredOver 2.5 goals
Vitoria Setubal1.51.5410/1510/15
Real2.11.377/158/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

2023-24 standings
#ClubPWDLGFGAPts
1Vitoria Setubal261655452153

A question about Vitoria Setubal vs Real?

Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.

Ask the AI a questionOpen the full match card in the app

Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Vitoria Setubal vs Real?
The Footlab AI model makes Vitoria Setubal the favourite at 61%, against 23% for a draw and 16% for Real.
Where and when is Vitoria Setubal vs Real played?
Vitoria Setubal vs Real is played on October 11, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio do Bonfim, in the Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
The Footlab AI model gives a 52% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.

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