Vitoria Setubal vs Real: prediction and stats
Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group DGroup D - 5Kick-off on October 11, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Estádio do Bonfim, Setúbal
The Footlab model makes Vitoria Setubal the favourite at 50%, against 25% for a draw and 25% for Real. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Vitoria Setubal vs Real?
Vitoria Setubal starts as the favourite with a 295-point Elo edge (1,901 vs 1,606).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Vitoria Setubal have 7 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats; Real have 0, 3 and 12.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Amora(home) | 1-3 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D |
| Aug 16, 2026 | FC Serpa(away) | 2-4 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D |
| Jun 10, 2024 | Amarante(home) | 0-3 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Promotion Round |
| Jun 1, 2024 | Lusitânia(away) | 1-2 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Promotion Round |
| May 25, 2024 | Moncarapachense(home) | 1-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Promotion Round |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 27, 2025 | Lajeadense(away) | 0-0 | Gaúcho - 2 |
| Jul 23, 2025 | Novo Hamburgo(home) | 0-3 | Gaúcho - 2 |
| Jul 19, 2025 | Passo Fundo(home) | 1-3 | Gaúcho - 2 |
| Jul 16, 2025 | União RS(away) | 1-1 | Gaúcho - 2 |
| Jul 5, 2025 | Gramadense(home) | 0-1 | Gaúcho - 2 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 5 Vitoria Setubal win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 Real win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 14, 2024 | Vitoria Setubal 2-0 Real | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D |
| Aug 27, 2023 | Real 2-3 Vitoria Setubal | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D |
| May 1, 2023 | Real 1-2 Vitoria Setubal | Liga 3 |
| Apr 7, 2023 | Vitoria Setubal 1-0 Real | Liga 3 |
| Feb 26, 2023 | Real 1-2 Vitoria Setubal | Liga 3 |
| Nov 13, 2022 | Vitoria Setubal 3-5 Real | Liga 3 |
Last archived meeting: Vitoria Setubal vs Real on Jan 14, 2024
How many goals should we expect?
Vitoria Setubal score 1.5 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Real score 0.3 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 54% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vitoria Setubal | 1.5 | 1.4 | 5 | 9/15 | 10/15 |
| Real | 0.3 | 1.7 | 2 | 4/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vitoria Setubal | 26 | 16 | 5 | 5 | 45 | 21 | 53 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Vitoria Setubal vs Real?
- The Footlab model makes Vitoria Setubal the favourite at 50%, against 25% for a draw and 25% for Real.
- Where and when is Vitoria Setubal vs Real played?
- Vitoria Setubal vs Real is played on October 11, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio do Bonfim, in the Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 54% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.