Juventude Évora vs Aljustrelense: prediction and stats
Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group DGroup D - 5Kick-off on October 11, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Sanches de Miranda, Évora
The Footlab model makes Juventude Évora the favourite at 64%, against 22% for a draw and 14% for Aljustrelense. The most likely score is 2-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Juventude Évora vs Aljustrelense?
Juventude Évora starts as the favourite with a 264-point Elo edge (1,889 vs 1,626).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Juventude Évora have 6 wins, 7 draws and 2 defeats; Aljustrelense have 3, 3 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2026 | Alcochetense(home) | 3-2 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Vasco da Gama Vidigueira(home) | 4-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Moncarapachense(away) | 1-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D |
| Apr 4, 2026 | Comércio Indústria(home) | 1-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D |
| Mar 22, 2026 | FC Serpa(away) | 3-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Sintrense(away) | 0-4 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Lagoa(home) | 1-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D |
| Apr 10, 2021 | Vitoria Setubal(away) | 0-2 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group H |
| Apr 3, 2021 | Moura(home) | 2-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group H |
| Mar 14, 2021 | Louletano(home) | 1-2 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group H |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 1 Juventude Évora win(s), 1 draw(s), 0 Aljustrelense win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 17, 2021 | Aljustrelense 1-1 Juventude Évora | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group H |
| Sep 20, 2020 | Juventude Évora 3-1 Aljustrelense | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group H |
Last archived meeting: Aljustrelense vs Juventude Évora on Jan 17, 2021
How many goals should we expect?
Juventude Évora score 1.5 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Aljustrelense score 0.7 and concede 2.0. The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juventude Évora | 1.5 | 1.0 | 4 | 11/15 | 8/15 |
| Aljustrelense | 0.7 | 2.0 | 3 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Juventude Évora | 26 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 26 | 25 | 32 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Juventude Évora vs Aljustrelense?
- The Footlab model makes Juventude Évora the favourite at 64%, against 22% for a draw and 14% for Aljustrelense.
- Where and when is Juventude Évora vs Aljustrelense played?
- Juventude Évora vs Aljustrelense is played on October 11, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Sanches de Miranda, in the Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.