Amora vs Lagoa: prediction and stats
Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group DGroup D - 5Kick-off on October 11, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Estádio da Medideira, Amora
The Footlab AI model makes Amora the favourite at 42%, against 28% for a draw and 30% for Lagoa. The most likely score is 1-1. If Amora wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 1,754 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 9, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Amora vs Lagoa?
A very open match: only 14 Elo points separate Amora (1,910) and Lagoa (1,896).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Amora vs Lagoa
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Amora
4-3-3- 71D. Semedo
- 17E. Furtado
- 7Miguel Lopes
- 8Mauro Antunes
- 28Hélio Cruz
- 88Caires
- 25Tiago Duque
- 37Wendel
- 6Renzo Trotta
- 13Miguel Lopes
- 47H. Correia
Lagoa
Not enough data to predict the Lagoa lineup.
Computed on October 9, 2026 at 12:55 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Amora have 4 wins, 2 draws and 9 defeats; Lagoa have 6, 3 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 27, 2026 | Lajense(home) | 1-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D |
| Sep 20, 2026 | UD da Serra(home) | 3-4 | Taça de Portugal |
| Sep 13, 2026 | 1º Dezembro(away) | 1-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Real(home) | 0-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D |
| Aug 23, 2026 | Vitoria Setubal(away) | 3-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 19, 2026 | Atlético CP(away) | 1-4 | Taça de Portugal |
| Sep 13, 2026 | FC Serpa(home) | 0-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Santa Clara B(away) | 2-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D |
| Aug 23, 2026 | Imortal Albufeira(away) | 0-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Aljustrelense(away) | 1-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 1 Amora win, 1 draw, 0 Lagoa wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 29, 2025 | Amora 1-0 Lagoa | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D |
| Dec 8, 2024 | Lagoa 1-1 Amora | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D |
How many goals should we expect?
Amora score 1.0 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; Lagoa score 1.3 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 46% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amora | 1.0 | 1.6 | 2 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
| Lagoa | 1.3 | 1.3 | 4 | 9/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Amora sit 2nd in Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D (57 points from 26 matches) and Lagoa sit 8th (30 points from 26 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Amora | 26 | 17 | 6 | 3 | 41 | 19 | 57 |
| 8 | Lagoa | 26 | 7 | 9 | 10 | 26 | 35 | 30 |
A question about Amora vs Lagoa?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Amora vs Lagoa?
- The Footlab AI model makes Amora the favourite at 42%, against 28% for a draw and 30% for Lagoa.
- Where and when is Amora vs Lagoa played?
- Amora vs Lagoa is played on October 11, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio da Medideira, in the Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 46% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.