Wellington Phoenix vs Adelaide United: prediction and stats
A-LeagueRegular Season - 6Kick-off on November 29, 2026 at 02:00 AM (UTC)Sky Stadium, Wellington
The Footlab AI model makes Wellington Phoenix the favourite at 48%, against 25% for a draw and 27% for Adelaide United. The most likely score is 1-1. If Wellington Phoenix wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.1% of the 5,415 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Nov 11, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Wellington Phoenix vs Adelaide United?
A very open match: only 78 Elo points separate Wellington Phoenix (1,764) and Adelaide United (1,686).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Wellington Phoenix vs Adelaide United
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Wellington Phoenix
4-4-2- 99C. Piper
- 9R. Durán
- 25K. Nagasawa
- 8M. Anderson
- 7B. Duke
- 14A. Rufer
- 28B. Tuiloma
- 18L. Kelly-Heald
- 27M. Sheridan
- 23J. McGarry
- 13H. Gray
Adelaide United
4-4-2- 35Brody Burkitt
- 27Mitchell Smith
- 55E. Alagich
- 23L. Đuzel
- 10Juan Muñiz
- 11C. Goodwin
- 4P. Kikianis
- 14J. Barnett
- 52S. Phillis
- 7R. Kitto
- 22J. Smits
Computed on November 11, 2026 at 09:30 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Wellington Phoenix have 7 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats; Adelaide United have 5, 2 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 7, 2026 | Auckland(away) | 0-0 | A-League |
| Oct 31, 2026 | Newcastle Jets(away) | 3-0 | A-League |
| Oct 25, 2026 | Central Coast Mariners(home) | 2-0 | A-League |
| Oct 18, 2026 | Melbourne Victory(home) | 2-1 | A-League |
| Apr 24, 2026 | Macarthur(away) | 0-4 | A-League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8, 2026 | Melbourne Victory(home) | 2-2 | A-League |
| Nov 5, 2026 | Home United(away) | 0-5 | AFC Champions League Two |
| Nov 1, 2026 | Perth Glory(away) | 0-4 | A-League |
| Oct 29, 2026 | Home United(home) | 0-2 | AFC Champions League Two |
| Oct 25, 2026 | Sydney(away) | 1-2 | A-League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Wellington Phoenix wins, 2 draws, 2 Adelaide United wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 6, 2026 | Adelaide United 1-1 Wellington Phoenix | A-League |
| Jan 11, 2026 | Wellington Phoenix 2-2 Adelaide United | A-League |
| Nov 29, 2025 | Wellington Phoenix 2-1 Adelaide United | A-League |
| Apr 18, 2025 | Adelaide United 3-2 Wellington Phoenix | A-League |
| Jan 11, 2025 | Wellington Phoenix 1-2 Adelaide United | A-League |
| Mar 3, 2024 | Wellington Phoenix 3-2 Adelaide United | A-League |
Last archived meeting: Adelaide United vs Wellington Phoenix on Mar 6, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Wellington Phoenix score 1.3 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Adelaide United score 1.2 and concede 1.9. The model gives a 59% probability of over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wellington Phoenix | 1.3 | 1.4 | 5 | 6/15 | 8/15 |
| Adelaide United | 1.2 | 1.9 | 1 | 8/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Wellington Phoenix sit 1st in A-League (10 points from 4 matches) and Adelaide United sit 12th (1 point from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wellington Phoenix | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 10 |
| 12 | Adelaide United | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 1 |
A question about Wellington Phoenix vs Adelaide United?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Wellington Phoenix vs Adelaide United?
- The Footlab AI model makes Wellington Phoenix the favourite at 48%, against 25% for a draw and 27% for Adelaide United.
- Where and when is Wellington Phoenix vs Adelaide United played?
- Wellington Phoenix vs Adelaide United is played on November 29, 2026 at 02:00 AM (UTC) at Sky Stadium, in the A-League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 59% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.1% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.