Wellington Phoenix vs Adelaide United: prediction and stats
A-LeagueRegular Season - 6Kick-off on November 29, 2026 at 02:00 AM (UTC)Sky Stadium, Wellington
The Footlab model makes Adelaide United the favourite at 41%, against 24% for a draw and 35% for Wellington Phoenix. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Wellington Phoenix vs Adelaide United?
A very open match: only 34 Elo points separate Wellington Phoenix (1,771) and Adelaide United (1,805).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Wellington Phoenix have 5 wins, 4 draws and 6 defeats; Adelaide United have 5, 6 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 24, 2026 | Macarthur(away) | 0-4 | A-League |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Western Sydney Wanderers(home) | 2-1 | A-League |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Melbourne City(away) | 0-2 | A-League |
| Apr 5, 2026 | Melbourne Victory(away) | 1-0 | A-League |
| Mar 21, 2026 | Brisbane Roar(away) | 2-1 | A-League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 11, 2026 | Công An Nhân Dân(home) | 0-2 | AFC Champions League Elite |
| Jul 30, 2026 | South Melbourne(away) | 1-2 | Australia Cup |
| May 15, 2026 | Auckland(home) | 0-3 | A-League |
| May 9, 2026 | Auckland(away) | 1-1 | A-League |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Melbourne City(away) | 2-1 | A-League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Wellington Phoenix win(s), 2 draw(s), 2 Adelaide United win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 6, 2026 | Adelaide United 1-1 Wellington Phoenix | A-League |
| Jan 11, 2026 | Wellington Phoenix 2-2 Adelaide United | A-League |
| Nov 29, 2025 | Wellington Phoenix 2-1 Adelaide United | A-League |
| Apr 18, 2025 | Adelaide United 3-2 Wellington Phoenix | A-League |
| Jan 11, 2025 | Wellington Phoenix 1-2 Adelaide United | A-League |
| Mar 3, 2024 | Wellington Phoenix 3-2 Adelaide United | A-League |
Last archived meeting: Adelaide United vs Wellington Phoenix on Mar 6, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Wellington Phoenix score 1.3 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; Adelaide United score 1.6 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 63% probability of over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wellington Phoenix | 1.3 | 1.9 | 3 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
| Adelaide United | 1.6 | 1.4 | 1 | 12/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Wellington Phoenix sit 8th in A-League (33 points from 26 matches) and Adelaide United sit 2nd (43 points from 26 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Adelaide United | 26 | 12 | 7 | 7 | 46 | 36 | 43 |
| 8 | Wellington Phoenix | 26 | 9 | 6 | 11 | 36 | 48 | 33 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Wellington Phoenix vs Adelaide United?
- The Footlab model makes Adelaide United the favourite at 41%, against 24% for a draw and 35% for Wellington Phoenix.
- Where and when is Wellington Phoenix vs Adelaide United played?
- Wellington Phoenix vs Adelaide United is played on November 29, 2026 at 02:00 AM (UTC) at Sky Stadium, in the A-League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 63% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.