Macarthur vs Melbourne City: prediction and stats
A-LeagueRegular Season - 6Kick-off on November 27, 2026 at 08:40 AM (UTC)Campbelltown Sports Stadium, Sydney
The Footlab model makes Macarthur the favourite at 38%, against 26% for a draw and 36% for Melbourne City. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Macarthur vs Melbourne City?
A very open match: only 72 Elo points separate Macarthur (1,809) and Melbourne City (1,882).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Macarthur have 4 wins, 4 draws and 7 defeats; Melbourne City have 6, 4 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 11, 2026 | SD Raiders(away) | 1-1 | Australia Cup |
| Jul 22, 2026 | Uni Azzurri(away) | 3-0 | Australia Cup |
| Apr 24, 2026 | Wellington Phoenix(home) | 4-0 | A-League |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Adelaide United(away) | 1-3 | A-League |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Perth Glory(away) | 1-3 | A-League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 11, 2026 | Lions(away) | 0-2 | Australia Cup |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Palermo(home) | 0-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Weston Bears(away) | 3-0 | Australia Cup |
| May 2, 2026 | Auckland(away) | 1-1 | A-League |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Adelaide United(home) | 1-2 | A-League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Macarthur win(s), 2 draw(s), 1 Melbourne City win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 24, 2026 | Macarthur 6-2 Melbourne City | A-League |
| Dec 23, 2025 | Melbourne City 1-1 Macarthur | A-League |
| Mar 7, 2025 | Melbourne City 2-0 Macarthur | A-League |
| Jan 25, 2025 | Macarthur 1-0 Melbourne City | A-League |
| Mar 1, 2024 | Macarthur 2-0 Melbourne City | A-League |
| Nov 12, 2023 | Melbourne City 3-3 Macarthur | A-League |
Last archived meeting: Macarthur vs Melbourne City on Jan 24, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Macarthur score 1.5 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; Melbourne City score 1.3 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 57% probability of over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Macarthur | 1.5 | 1.9 | 2 | 10/15 | 11/15 |
| Melbourne City | 1.3 | 1.2 | 5 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Macarthur sit 7th in A-League (34 points from 26 matches) and Melbourne City sit 6th (38 points from 26 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Melbourne City | 26 | 10 | 8 | 8 | 33 | 33 | 38 |
| 7 | Macarthur | 26 | 9 | 7 | 10 | 37 | 44 | 34 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Macarthur vs Melbourne City?
- The Footlab model makes Macarthur the favourite at 38%, against 26% for a draw and 36% for Melbourne City.
- Where and when is Macarthur vs Melbourne City played?
- Macarthur vs Melbourne City is played on November 27, 2026 at 08:40 AM (UTC) at Campbelltown Sports Stadium, in the A-League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 57% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.