Adelaide United vs Macarthur: prediction and stats
A-LeagueRegular Season - 8Kick-off on December 11, 2026 at 08:40 AM (UTC)Coopers Stadium, Adelaide
The Footlab model makes Macarthur the favourite at 38%, against 25% for a draw and 37% for Adelaide United. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Adelaide United vs Macarthur?
A very open match: only 4 Elo points separate Adelaide United (1,805) and Macarthur (1,809).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Adelaide United have 5 wins, 6 draws and 4 defeats; Macarthur have 4, 4 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 11, 2026 | Công An Nhân Dân(home) | 0-2 | AFC Champions League Elite |
| Jul 30, 2026 | South Melbourne(away) | 1-2 | Australia Cup |
| May 15, 2026 | Auckland(home) | 0-3 | A-League |
| May 9, 2026 | Auckland(away) | 1-1 | A-League |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Melbourne City(away) | 2-1 | A-League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 11, 2026 | SD Raiders(away) | 1-1 | Australia Cup |
| Jul 22, 2026 | Uni Azzurri(away) | 3-0 | Australia Cup |
| Apr 24, 2026 | Wellington Phoenix(home) | 4-0 | A-League |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Adelaide United(away) | 1-3 | A-League |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Perth Glory(away) | 1-3 | A-League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Adelaide United win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 Macarthur win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 19, 2026 | Adelaide United 3-1 Macarthur | A-League |
| Jan 30, 2026 | Adelaide United 1-1 Macarthur | A-League |
| Oct 27, 2025 | Macarthur 2-1 Adelaide United | A-League |
| Mar 14, 2025 | Adelaide United 4-5 Macarthur | A-League |
| Jan 6, 2025 | Macarthur 1-2 Adelaide United | A-League |
| Apr 12, 2024 | Adelaide United 1-2 Macarthur | A-League |
Last archived meeting: Adelaide United vs Macarthur on Apr 19, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Adelaide United score 1.6 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Macarthur score 1.5 and concede 1.9. The model gives a 60% probability of over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adelaide United | 1.6 | 1.4 | 1 | 12/15 | 8/15 |
| Macarthur | 1.5 | 1.9 | 2 | 10/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Adelaide United sit 2nd in A-League (43 points from 26 matches) and Macarthur sit 7th (34 points from 26 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Adelaide United | 26 | 12 | 7 | 7 | 46 | 36 | 43 |
| 7 | Macarthur | 26 | 9 | 7 | 10 | 37 | 44 | 34 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Adelaide United vs Macarthur?
- The Footlab model makes Macarthur the favourite at 38%, against 25% for a draw and 37% for Adelaide United.
- Where and when is Adelaide United vs Macarthur played?
- Adelaide United vs Macarthur is played on December 11, 2026 at 08:40 AM (UTC) at Coopers Stadium, in the A-League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 60% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.