Worthing vs AFC Hornchurch: prediction and stats
National LeagueRegular Season - 8Kick-off on September 15, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC)Sussex Transport Community Stadium, Worthing, West Sussex
The Footlab model makes Worthing the favourite at 58%, against 21% for a draw and 21% for AFC Hornchurch. The most likely score is 2-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Worthing vs AFC Hornchurch?
A very open match: only 59 Elo points separate Worthing (1,947) and AFC Hornchurch (1,888).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Worthing have 9 wins, 3 draws and 3 defeats; AFC Hornchurch have 10, 2 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Wealdstone(home) | 1-0 | National League |
| Aug 18, 2026 | West Ham United U21(home) | 1-2 | National League Cup |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Forest Green(home) | 1-2 | National League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Carlisle(away) | 3-2 | National League |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Horsham(home) | 3-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Carlisle(away) | 1-4 | National League |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Norwich City U21(home) | 1-2 | National League Cup |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Barrow(away) | 2-1 | National League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Kidderminster Harriers(home) | 3-0 | National League |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Coventry City U21(home) | 2-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Worthing win(s), 2 draw(s), 2 AFC Hornchurch win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | AFC Hornchurch 2-1 Worthing | National League - South |
| Nov 29, 2025 | Worthing 5-0 AFC Hornchurch | National League - South |
| Mar 25, 2025 | AFC Hornchurch 1-0 Worthing | National League - South |
| Sep 7, 2024 | Worthing 0-0 AFC Hornchurch | National League - South |
| Jan 22, 2022 | Worthing 1-1 AFC Hornchurch | Non League Premier - Isthmian |
| Nov 16, 2021 | AFC Hornchurch 1-3 Worthing | Non League Premier - Isthmian |
Last archived meeting: AFC Hornchurch vs Worthing on Feb 28, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Worthing score 2.1 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; AFC Hornchurch score 2.1 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 70% probability of over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Worthing | 2.1 | 1.1 | 5 | 10/15 | 10/15 |
| AFC Hornchurch | 2.1 | 1.1 | 6 | 9/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Worthing sit 9th in National League (6 points from 3 matches) and AFC Hornchurch sit 7th (6 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | AFC Hornchurch | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 6 |
| 9 | Worthing | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 6 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Worthing vs AFC Hornchurch?
- The Footlab model makes Worthing the favourite at 58%, against 21% for a draw and 21% for AFC Hornchurch.
- Where and when is Worthing vs AFC Hornchurch played?
- Worthing vs AFC Hornchurch is played on September 15, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC) at Sussex Transport Community Stadium, in the National League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 70% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.