Carlisle vs Forest Green: prediction and stats
National LeagueRegular Season - 8Kick-off on September 15, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC)Brunton Park, Carlisle, Cumbria
The Footlab model makes Carlisle the favourite at 56%, against 23% for a draw and 22% for Forest Green. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Carlisle vs Forest Green?
A very open match: only 49 Elo points separate Carlisle (1,897) and Forest Green (1,847).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Carlisle have 9 wins, 3 draws and 3 defeats; Forest Green have 8, 2 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | AFC Hornchurch(home) | 4-1 | National League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Yeovil Town(away) | 1-1 | National League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Worthing(home) | 2-3 | National League |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Derby County U21(away) | 3-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Salford City(home) | 0-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Boreham Wood(home) | 0-3 | National League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Worthing(away) | 2-1 | National League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | FC Halifax Town(home) | 3-2 | National League |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Swindon Town(home) | 1-4 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Bristol City(home) | 3-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Carlisle win(s), 0 draw(s), 4 Forest Green win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 14, 2026 | Forest Green 1-3 Carlisle | National League |
| Oct 18, 2025 | Carlisle 4-2 Forest Green | National League |
| Jan 22, 2022 | Forest Green 3-0 Carlisle | League Two |
| Oct 2, 2021 | Carlisle 0-2 Forest Green | League Two |
| Feb 2, 2021 | Carlisle 1-2 Forest Green | League Two |
| Dec 19, 2020 | Forest Green 1-0 Carlisle | League Two |
Last archived meeting: Forest Green vs Carlisle on Feb 14, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Carlisle score 2.2 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Forest Green score 2.1 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 62% probability of over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlisle | 2.2 | 1.1 | 6 | 8/15 | 10/15 |
| Forest Green | 2.1 | 1.7 | 2 | 11/15 | 13/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Carlisle sit 12th in National League (4 points from 3 matches) and Forest Green sit 10th (6 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Forest Green | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 6 |
| 12 | Carlisle | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Carlisle vs Forest Green?
- The Footlab model makes Carlisle the favourite at 56%, against 23% for a draw and 22% for Forest Green.
- Where and when is Carlisle vs Forest Green played?
- Carlisle vs Forest Green is played on September 15, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC) at Brunton Park, in the National League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 62% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.