Worthing vs Gateshead: prediction and stats
National LeagueRegular Season - 23Kick-off on December 19, 2026 at 05:30 PM (UTC)Sussex Transport Community Stadium, Worthing, West Sussex
The Footlab model makes Worthing the favourite at 65%, against 20% for a draw and 15% for Gateshead. The most likely score is 2-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Worthing vs Gateshead?
Worthing starts as the favourite with a 239-point Elo edge (1,943 vs 1,704).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Worthing have 9 wins, 3 draws and 3 defeats; Gateshead have 5, 4 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Wealdstone(home) | 1-0 | National League |
| Aug 18, 2026 | West Ham United U21(home) | 1-2 | National League Cup |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Forest Green(home) | 1-2 | National League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Carlisle(away) | 3-2 | National League |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Horsham(home) | 3-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Yeovil Town(away) | 0-3 | National League |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Nottingham Forest U21(home) | 1-1 | National League Cup |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Woking(home) | 2-0 | National League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Eastleigh(away) | 1-2 | National League |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Spennymoor Town(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
How many goals should we expect?
Worthing score 2.1 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Gateshead score 1.5 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 63% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Worthing | 2.1 | 1.1 | 5 | 10/15 | 10/15 |
| Gateshead | 1.5 | 1.5 | 5 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Worthing sit 9th in National League (6 points from 3 matches) and Gateshead sit 17th (3 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Worthing | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 6 |
| 17 | Gateshead | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Worthing vs Gateshead?
- The Footlab model makes Worthing the favourite at 65%, against 20% for a draw and 15% for Gateshead.
- Where and when is Worthing vs Gateshead played?
- Worthing vs Gateshead is played on December 19, 2026 at 05:30 PM (UTC) at Sussex Transport Community Stadium, in the National League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 63% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.