Yagüe vs Alfaro: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 16Group 16 - 19Kick-off on January 24, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio El Salvador, Logroño
The Footlab AI model makes Alfaro the favourite at 40%, against 26% for a draw and 34% for Yagüe. The most likely score is 1-1. If Alfaro wins, the most likely score is 1-2.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,395 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 14, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Yagüe vs Alfaro?
Alfaro starts as the favourite with a 118-point Elo edge (1,745 vs 1,628).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Yagüe vs Alfaro
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Yagüe
Not enough data to predict the Yagüe lineup.
Alfaro
Not enough data to predict the Alfaro lineup.
Computed on October 14, 2026 at 08:53 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Yagüe have 2 wins, 4 draws and 9 defeats; Alfaro have 6, 3 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Anguiano(away) | 0-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Cenicero(home) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Haro Deportivo(away) | 0-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | River Ebro(home) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Alfaro(away) | 1-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Casalarreina(away) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Calahorra(home) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Anguiano(away) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Haro Deportivo(home) | 1-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Yagüe(home) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 0 Yagüe wins, 0 draws, 4 Alfaro wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 13, 2026 | Alfaro 2-1 Yagüe | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Feb 20, 2022 | Alfaro 2-0 Yagüe | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Oct 10, 2021 | Yagüe 0-3 Alfaro | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Nov 10, 2019 | Alfaro 5-0 Yagüe | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
How many goals should we expect?
Yagüe score 0.9 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; Alfaro score 1.5 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 55% probability of over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yagüe | 0.9 | 1.9 | 1 | 7/15 | 9/15 |
| Alfaro | 1.5 | 1.7 | 2 | 10/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Yagüe sit 12th in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 (6 points from 6 matches) and Alfaro sit 2nd (13 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Alfaro | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 7 | 13 |
| 12 | Yagüe | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 11 | 6 |
A question about Yagüe vs Alfaro?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Yagüe vs Alfaro?
- The Footlab AI model makes Alfaro the favourite at 40%, against 26% for a draw and 34% for Yagüe.
- Where and when is Yagüe vs Alfaro played?
- Yagüe vs Alfaro is played on January 24, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio El Salvador, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 16.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 55% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.