San Marcial vs Varea: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 16Group 16 - 19Kick-off on January 24, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Campo de Fútbol Ángel de Vicente, Lardero
The Footlab AI model makes Varea the favourite at 46%, against 29% for a draw and 25% for San Marcial. The most likely score is 1-1. If Varea wins, the most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.4% of the 2,761 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 18, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win San Marcial vs Varea?
Varea starts as the favourite with a 145-point Elo edge (1,875 vs 1,730).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for San Marcial vs Varea
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
San Marcial
Not enough data to predict the San Marcial lineup.
Varea
Not enough data to predict the Varea lineup.
Computed on October 18, 2026 at 10:45 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, San Marcial have 5 wins, 6 draws and 4 defeats; Varea have 6, 7 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | Yagüe(away) | 3-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Cenicero(away) | 3-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | River Ebro(home) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Berceo(away) | 1-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Comillas(home) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2026 | Calasancio(away) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Agoncillo(home) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Oyonesa(away) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | La Calzada(home) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Pradejón(away) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 3 meetings: 0 San Marcial wins, 1 draw, 2 Varea wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 13, 2026 | Varea 0-0 San Marcial | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Mar 1, 2026 | Varea 1-0 San Marcial | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Oct 19, 2025 | San Marcial 0-2 Varea | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
How many goals should we expect?
San Marcial score 1.4 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Varea score 0.8 and concede 0.5. The model gives a 40% probability of over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Marcial | 1.4 | 1.7 | 5 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
| Varea | 0.8 | 0.5 | 8 | 5/15 | 1/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
San Marcial sit 5th in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 (12 points from 7 matches) and Varea sit 8th (10 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | San Marcial | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 10 | 5 | 12 |
| 8 | Varea | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 10 |
A question about San Marcial vs Varea?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for San Marcial vs Varea?
- The Footlab AI model makes Varea the favourite at 46%, against 29% for a draw and 25% for San Marcial.
- Where and when is San Marcial vs Varea played?
- San Marcial vs Varea is played on January 24, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Campo de Fútbol Ángel de Vicente, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 16.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 40% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.4% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.