York United vs Pacific FC: prediction and stats
Canadian Premier LeagueGroup StageKick-off on September 9, 2026 at 11:30 PM (UTC)York Lions Stadium, Toronto, Ontario
The Footlab model makes York United the favourite at 58%, against 22% for a draw and 20% for Pacific FC. The most likely score is 2-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win York United vs Pacific FC?
York United starts as the favourite with a 143-point Elo edge (1,643 vs 1,500).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, York United have 3 wins, 5 draws and 7 defeats; Pacific FC have 0, 4 and 11.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Supra du Quebec(home) | 1-1 | Canadian Premier League |
| Aug 16, 2026 | HFX Wanderers FC(home) | 4-3 | Canadian Premier League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Pacific FC(away) | 1-1 | Canadian Premier League |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Cavalry FC(away) | 0-5 | Canadian Premier League |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Forge(home) | 1-3 | Canadian Premier League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Forge(away) | 0-2 | Canadian Premier League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Vancouver FC(away) | 1-1 | Canadian Premier League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | York United(home) | 1-1 | Canadian Premier League |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Supra du Quebec(home) | 1-2 | Canadian Premier League |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Atlético Ottawa(away) | 2-3 | Canadian Premier League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 York United win(s), 2 draw(s), 1 Pacific FC win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 8, 2026 | Pacific FC 1-1 York United | Canadian Premier League |
| May 17, 2026 | Pacific FC 0-1 York United | Canadian Premier League |
| Oct 9, 2025 | York United 2-2 Pacific FC | Canadian Premier League |
| Aug 24, 2025 | York United 5-1 Pacific FC | Canadian Premier League |
| Jun 14, 2025 | Pacific FC 1-3 York United | Canadian Premier League |
| May 11, 2025 | Pacific FC 2-1 York United | Canadian Premier League |
Last archived meeting: Pacific FC vs York United on Aug 8, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
York United score 1.2 and concede 2.3 goals per match over their last 15; Pacific FC score 0.9 and concede 2.1. The model gives a 65% probability of over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| York United | 1.2 | 2.3 | 1 | 11/15 | 8/15 |
| Pacific FC | 0.9 | 2.1 | 0 | 11/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
York United sit 7th in Canadian Premier League (17 points from 15 matches) and Pacific FC sit 8th (5 points from 17 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | York United | 15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 20 | 34 | 17 |
| 8 | Pacific FC | 17 | 0 | 5 | 12 | 18 | 36 | 5 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for York United vs Pacific FC?
- The Footlab model makes York United the favourite at 58%, against 22% for a draw and 20% for Pacific FC.
- Where and when is York United vs Pacific FC played?
- York United vs Pacific FC is played on September 9, 2026 at 11:30 PM (UTC) at York Lions Stadium, in the Canadian Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 65% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Apr 4, 2026Forge2-0Atlético Ottawa
- Apr 4, 2026Vancouver FC0-1HFX Wanderers FC
- Apr 5, 2026Pacific FC1-2Cavalry FC
- Apr 11, 2026York United2-2HFX Wanderers FC
- Apr 11, 2026Pacific FC2-3Supra du Quebec
- Apr 12, 2026Cavalry FC3-1Atlético Ottawa
- Apr 12, 2026Vancouver FC0-1Forge
- Apr 18, 2026HFX Wanderers FC2-2Pacific FC