York United vs Vancouver FC: prediction and stats
Canadian Premier LeagueGroup StageKick-off on September 13, 2026 at 07:00 PM (UTC)York Lions Stadium, Toronto, Ontario
The Footlab model makes Vancouver FC the favourite at 43%, against 25% for a draw and 33% for York United. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win York United vs Vancouver FC?
A very open match: only 12 Elo points separate York United (1,643) and Vancouver FC (1,654).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, York United have 3 wins, 5 draws and 7 defeats; Vancouver FC have 7, 2 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Supra du Quebec(home) | 1-1 | Canadian Premier League |
| Aug 16, 2026 | HFX Wanderers FC(home) | 4-3 | Canadian Premier League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Pacific FC(away) | 1-1 | Canadian Premier League |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Cavalry FC(away) | 0-5 | Canadian Premier League |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Forge(home) | 1-3 | Canadian Premier League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | HFX Wanderers FC(away) | 0-1 | Canadian Premier League |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Atlético Ottawa(away) | 0-4 | Canadian Premier League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Pacific FC(home) | 1-1 | Canadian Premier League |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Forge(away) | 1-0 | Canadian Premier League |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Atlético Ottawa(home) | 3-1 | Canadian Premier League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 York United win(s), 0 draw(s), 2 Vancouver FC win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 4, 2026 | Vancouver FC 4-0 York United | Canadian Premier League |
| Apr 19, 2026 | York United 1-0 Vancouver FC | Canadian Premier League |
| Sep 21, 2025 | Vancouver FC 2-1 York United | Canadian Premier League |
| Jul 19, 2025 | York United 4-0 Vancouver FC | Canadian Premier League |
| May 25, 2025 | York United 1-0 Vancouver FC | Canadian Premier League |
| Apr 6, 2025 | Vancouver FC 0-2 York United | Canadian Premier League |
Last archived meeting: Vancouver FC vs York United on Jul 4, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
York United score 1.2 and concede 2.3 goals per match over their last 15; Vancouver FC score 1.6 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 62% probability of over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| York United | 1.2 | 2.3 | 1 | 11/15 | 8/15 |
| Vancouver FC | 1.6 | 1.3 | 3 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
York United sit 7th in Canadian Premier League (17 points from 15 matches) and Vancouver FC sit 4th (27 points from 19 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Vancouver FC | 19 | 8 | 3 | 8 | 26 | 22 | 27 |
| 7 | York United | 15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 20 | 34 | 17 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for York United vs Vancouver FC?
- The Footlab model makes Vancouver FC the favourite at 43%, against 25% for a draw and 33% for York United.
- Where and when is York United vs Vancouver FC played?
- York United vs Vancouver FC is played on September 13, 2026 at 07:00 PM (UTC) at York Lions Stadium, in the Canadian Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 62% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Apr 4, 2026Forge2-0Atlético Ottawa
- Apr 4, 2026Vancouver FC0-1HFX Wanderers FC
- Apr 5, 2026Pacific FC1-2Cavalry FC
- Apr 11, 2026York United2-2HFX Wanderers FC
- Apr 11, 2026Pacific FC2-3Supra du Quebec
- Apr 12, 2026Cavalry FC3-1Atlético Ottawa
- Apr 12, 2026Vancouver FC0-1Forge
- Apr 18, 2026HFX Wanderers FC2-2Pacific FC