Zenit vs Dinamo Makhachkala: prediction and stats
CupGroup Stage - 3Kick-off on September 1, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Gazprom Arena, St. Petersburg
The Footlab model makes Zenit the favourite at 54%, against 27% for a draw and 19% for Dinamo Makhachkala. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Zenit vs Dinamo Makhachkala?
Zenit starts as the favourite with a 261-point Elo edge (2,182 vs 1,921).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Zenit have 10 wins, 3 draws and 2 defeats; Dinamo Makhachkala have 6, 4 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Spartak Moscow(away) | 0-2 | Premier League |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Krylia Sovetov(away) | 0-0 | Cup |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Dynamo(home) | 3-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Rodina Moskva(home) | 1-2 | Premier League |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Baltika(home) | 1-0 | Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | FC Krasnodar(home) | 0-1 | Premier League |
| Aug 20, 2026 | Baltika(away) | 1-1 | Cup |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Krylia Sovetov(away) | 4-1 | Premier League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Dynamo(away) | 1-3 | Premier League |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Krylia Sovetov(home) | 1-2 | Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 5 meetings: 5 Zenit win(s), 0 draw(s), 0 Dinamo Makhachkala win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 19, 2026 | Dinamo Makhachkala 0-1 Zenit | Premier League |
| Mar 18, 2026 | Zenit 1-0 Dinamo Makhachkala | Cup |
| Aug 23, 2025 | Zenit 4-0 Dinamo Makhachkala | Premier League |
| May 10, 2025 | Dinamo Makhachkala 0-1 Zenit | Premier League |
| Nov 2, 2024 | Zenit 2-1 Dinamo Makhachkala | Premier League |
Last archived meeting: Dinamo Makhachkala vs Zenit on Apr 19, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Zenit score 1.9 and concede 0.6 goals per match over their last 15; Dinamo Makhachkala score 1.4 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 42% probability of over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zenit | 1.9 | 0.6 | 8 | 6/15 | 8/15 |
| Dinamo Makhachkala | 1.4 | 1.1 | 3 | 11/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Zenit vs Dinamo Makhachkala?
- The Footlab model makes Zenit the favourite at 54%, against 27% for a draw and 19% for Dinamo Makhachkala.
- Where and when is Zenit vs Dinamo Makhachkala played?
- Zenit vs Dinamo Makhachkala is played on September 1, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Gazprom Arena, in the Cup.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 42% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.