FC Orenburg vs Rubin: prediction and stats
CupGroup Stage - 3Kick-off on September 1, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Gazovik, Rostoshi
The Footlab model makes FC Orenburg the favourite at 37%, against 30% for a draw and 33% for Rubin. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win FC Orenburg vs Rubin?
A very open match: only 82 Elo points separate FC Orenburg (1,843) and Rubin (1,926).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, FC Orenburg have 6 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats; Rubin have 4, 7 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Fakel(away) | 0-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Rodina Moskva(away) | 4-1 | Cup |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Lokomotiv(home) | 1-1 | Premier League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Rubin(away) | 1-1 | Premier League |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Spartak Moscow(away) | 1-5 | Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 19, 2026 | Spartak Moscow(home) | 1-1 | Cup |
| Aug 15, 2026 | FC Rostov(away) | 1-1 | Premier League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | FC Orenburg(home) | 1-1 | Premier League |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Rodina Moskva(away) | 0-5 | Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Akron(away) | 2-1 | Premier League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 FC Orenburg win(s), 4 draw(s), 0 Rubin win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 9, 2026 | Rubin 1-1 FC Orenburg | Premier League |
| Jul 3, 2026 | Rubin 1-2 FC Orenburg | Friendlies Clubs |
| Apr 11, 2026 | Rubin 0-0 FC Orenburg | Premier League |
| Feb 20, 2026 | FC Orenburg 1-0 Rubin | Friendlies Clubs |
| Sep 16, 2025 | FC Orenburg 0-0 Rubin | Cup |
| Aug 30, 2025 | FC Orenburg 2-2 Rubin | Premier League |
How many goals should we expect?
FC Orenburg score 1.1 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Rubin score 1.1 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 40% probability of over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Orenburg | 1.1 | 1.5 | 3 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
| Rubin | 1.1 | 1.3 | 4 | 10/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for FC Orenburg vs Rubin?
- The Footlab model makes FC Orenburg the favourite at 37%, against 30% for a draw and 33% for Rubin.
- Where and when is FC Orenburg vs Rubin played?
- FC Orenburg vs Rubin is played on September 1, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Gazovik, in the Cup.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 40% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.