Zorya Luhansk vs Shakhtar Donetsk: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 25Kick-off on May 1, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Dynamo im. Valeriy Lobanovskyi, Kyiv
The Footlab model makes Shakhtar Donetsk the favourite at 55%, against 26% for a draw and 19% for Zorya Luhansk. The most likely score is 0-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Zorya Luhansk vs Shakhtar Donetsk?
Shakhtar Donetsk starts as the favourite with a 250-point Elo edge (2,095 vs 1,845).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Zorya Luhansk have 7 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats; Shakhtar Donetsk have 10, 2 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Skala 1911 Stryi(away) | 6-0 | Cup |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Polessya(away) | 2-1 | Premier League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Kryvbas KR(home) | 1-3 | Premier League |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Kolos Kovalivka(home) | 2-0 | Premier League |
| Jul 23, 2026 | Göztepe(home) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2026 | Metalist 1925 Kharkiv(away) | 1-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi(away) | 2-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 3, 2026 | Kudrivka(home) | 5-1 | Premier League |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Bursaspor(away) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 23, 2026 | HNK Gorica(away) | 2-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Zorya Luhansk win(s), 1 draw(s), 5 Shakhtar Donetsk win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 23, 2026 | Zorya Luhansk 1-2 Shakhtar Donetsk | Premier League |
| Sep 22, 2025 | Shakhtar Donetsk 1-0 Zorya Luhansk | Premier League |
| May 9, 2025 | Zorya Luhansk 0-0 Shakhtar Donetsk | Premier League |
| Nov 10, 2024 | Shakhtar Donetsk 3-1 Zorya Luhansk | Premier League |
| Oct 30, 2024 | Shakhtar Donetsk 1-0 Zorya Luhansk | Cup |
| Apr 22, 2024 | Shakhtar Donetsk 2-1 Zorya Luhansk | Premier League |
Last archived meeting: Zorya Luhansk vs Shakhtar Donetsk on Apr 23, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Zorya Luhansk score 1.7 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Shakhtar Donetsk score 2.3 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 46% probability of over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zorya Luhansk | 1.7 | 1.1 | 4 | 11/15 | 10/15 |
| Shakhtar Donetsk | 2.3 | 0.9 | 6 | 8/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Zorya Luhansk sit 3rd in Premier League (6 points from 3 matches) and Shakhtar Donetsk sit 2nd (9 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Shakhtar Donetsk | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 1 | 9 |
| 3 | Zorya Luhansk | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 6 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Zorya Luhansk vs Shakhtar Donetsk?
- The Footlab model makes Shakhtar Donetsk the favourite at 55%, against 26% for a draw and 19% for Zorya Luhansk.
- Where and when is Zorya Luhansk vs Shakhtar Donetsk played?
- Zorya Luhansk vs Shakhtar Donetsk is played on May 1, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Dynamo im. Valeriy Lobanovskyi, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 46% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.