Karpaty vs Chornomorets: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 25Kick-off on May 1, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Ukraina, Lviv
The Footlab AI model makes Karpaty the favourite at 64%, against 22% for a draw and 14% for Chornomorets. The most likely score is 2-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.6% of the 2,541 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 17, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Karpaty vs Chornomorets?
Karpaty starts as the favourite with a 179-point Elo edge (1,984 vs 1,805).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Karpaty vs Chornomorets
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Karpaty
4-1-4-1- 9J. Séry
- 8A. Chachua
- 10Moha
- 31N. Rusyn
- 70Xeber Alkain
- 20M. Sapuga
- 47Jean Pedroso
- 17R. Vantukh
- 4V. Baboglo
- 11D. Miroshnichenko
- 80R. Mysak
Chornomorets
4-2-3-1- 99C. Mba
- 11K. Popov
- 18G. Robakidze
- 13V. Faraseenko
- 10A. Avagimyan
- 30M. Jobe
- 24M. Jarju
- 27O. Pushkarev
- 74M. Farina
- 60M. Melnychenko
- 12C. Aniagboso
Computed on October 17, 2026 at 02:50 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Karpaty have 10 wins, 3 draws and 2 defeats; Chornomorets have 4, 4 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Dynamo Kyiv(away) | 0-1 | Premier League |
| Oct 3, 2026 | KV Mechelen(away) | 3-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Veres Rivne(home) | 1-1 | Premier League |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Kolos Kovalivka(away) | 3-2 | Cup |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Kolos Kovalivka(away) | 2-0 | Premier League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | Zorya Luhansk(away) | 1-2 | Premier League |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Metalist 1925 Kharkiv(home) | 1-2 | Premier League |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Obolon'-Brovar(home) | 1-1 | Premier League |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Shakhtar Donetsk(away) | 0-2 | Premier League |
| Sep 4, 2026 | Livyi Bereh(home) | 0-0 | Premier League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Karpaty wins, 1 draw, 1 Chornomorets win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 30, 2025 | Karpaty 4-0 Chornomorets | Premier League |
| Sep 21, 2024 | Chornomorets 0-1 Karpaty | Premier League |
| Aug 21, 2024 | Karpaty 3-0 Chornomorets | Cup |
| May 21, 2019 | Chornomorets 3-1 Karpaty | Premier League |
| Apr 23, 2019 | Karpaty 0-0 Chornomorets | Premier League |
| Oct 28, 2018 | Chornomorets 0-5 Karpaty | Premier League |
Last archived meeting: Karpaty vs Chornomorets on Mar 30, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Karpaty score 2.2 and concede 0.7 goals per match over their last 15; Chornomorets score 0.9 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 50% probability of over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Karpaty | 2.2 | 0.7 | 7 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
| Chornomorets | 0.9 | 1.2 | 4 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Karpaty sit 5th in Premier League (14 points from 8 matches) and Chornomorets sit 14th (5 points from 7 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Karpaty | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 15 | 6 | 14 |
| 14 | Chornomorets | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 5 |
A question about Karpaty vs Chornomorets?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Karpaty vs Chornomorets?
- The Footlab AI model makes Karpaty the favourite at 64%, against 22% for a draw and 14% for Chornomorets.
- Where and when is Karpaty vs Chornomorets played?
- Karpaty vs Chornomorets is played on May 1, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Ukraina, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 50% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.