Karpaty vs Chornomorets: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 25Kick-off on May 1, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Ukraina, Lviv
The Footlab model makes Karpaty the favourite at 51%, against 27% for a draw and 22% for Chornomorets. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Karpaty vs Chornomorets?
Karpaty starts as the favourite with a 168-point Elo edge (1,906 vs 1,738).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Karpaty have 9 wins, 3 draws and 3 defeats; Chornomorets have 8, 2 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Obolon'-Brovar(home) | 2-0 | Cup |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Bukovyna(home) | 3-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 10, 2026 | LNZ Cherkasy(home) | 3-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Kryvbas KR(away) | 4-1 | Premier League |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Veres Rivne(home) | 5-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Vilkhivtsi(away) | 0-1 | Cup |
| Aug 16, 2026 | LNZ Cherkasy(away) | 0-2 | Premier League |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Polessya(home) | 1-2 | Premier League |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Kolos Kovalivka(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Nyva Vinnytsya(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Karpaty win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Chornomorets win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 30, 2025 | Karpaty 4-0 Chornomorets | Premier League |
| Sep 21, 2024 | Chornomorets 0-1 Karpaty | Premier League |
| Aug 21, 2024 | Karpaty 3-0 Chornomorets | Cup |
| May 21, 2019 | Chornomorets 3-1 Karpaty | Premier League |
| Apr 23, 2019 | Karpaty 0-0 Chornomorets | Premier League |
| Oct 28, 2018 | Chornomorets 0-5 Karpaty | Premier League |
Last archived meeting: Karpaty vs Chornomorets on Mar 30, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Karpaty score 2.0 and concede 0.7 goals per match over their last 15; Chornomorets score 1.3 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 45% probability of over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Karpaty | 2.0 | 0.7 | 7 | 6/15 | 8/15 |
| Chornomorets | 1.3 | 1.1 | 6 | 6/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Karpaty sit 1st in Premier League (9 points from 3 matches) and Chornomorets sit 15th (0 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Karpaty | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 1 | 9 |
| 15 | Chornomorets | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Karpaty vs Chornomorets?
- The Footlab model makes Karpaty the favourite at 51%, against 27% for a draw and 22% for Chornomorets.
- Where and when is Karpaty vs Chornomorets played?
- Karpaty vs Chornomorets is played on May 1, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Ukraina, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 45% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.