AC Horsens vs Aarhus: prediction and stats
SuperligaRegular Season - 9Kick-off on September 20, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Nordstern Arena Horsens, Horsens
The Footlab model makes Aarhus the favourite at 48%, against 24% for a draw and 27% for AC Horsens. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win AC Horsens vs Aarhus?
Aarhus starts as the favourite with a 179-point Elo edge (2,081 vs 1,902).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, AC Horsens have 7 wins, 4 draws and 4 defeats; Aarhus have 6, 4 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Lyngby(home) | 2-1 | Superliga |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Odense(away) | 2-1 | Superliga |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Brondby(home) | 0-2 | Superliga |
| Aug 2, 2026 | FC Midtjylland(away) | 1-2 | Superliga |
| Jul 26, 2026 | FC Nordsjaelland(home) | 1-1 | Superliga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Odense(home) | 2-2 | Superliga |
| Aug 20, 2026 | Benfica(away) | 1-3 | UEFA Europa League |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Viborg(away) | 1-2 | Superliga |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Sabah FA(away) | 0-4 | UEFA Champions League |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Sabah FA(home) | 2-1 | UEFA Champions League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 AC Horsens win(s), 0 draw(s), 5 Aarhus win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 15, 2026 | Aarhus 2-0 AC Horsens | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 2, 2025 | Aarhus 2-1 AC Horsens | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jun 30, 2024 | AC Horsens 0-3 Aarhus | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 8, 2023 | Aarhus 2-1 AC Horsens | Friendlies Clubs |
| Mar 3, 2023 | Aarhus 2-0 AC Horsens | Superliga |
| Nov 26, 2022 | Aarhus 0-1 AC Horsens | Friendlies Clubs |
How many goals should we expect?
AC Horsens score 1.3 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Aarhus score 1.9 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 59% probability of over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AC Horsens | 1.3 | 0.9 | 5 | 7/15 | 4/15 |
| Aarhus | 1.9 | 1.6 | 4 | 10/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
AC Horsens sit 6th in Superliga (7 points from 5 matches) and Aarhus sit 10th (3 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | AC Horsens | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 7 |
| 10 | Aarhus | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 7 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for AC Horsens vs Aarhus?
- The Footlab model makes Aarhus the favourite at 48%, against 24% for a draw and 27% for AC Horsens.
- Where and when is AC Horsens vs Aarhus played?
- AC Horsens vs Aarhus is played on September 20, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Nordstern Arena Horsens, in the Superliga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 59% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.