FC Copenhagen vs Aarhus: prediction and stats
SuperligaRegular Season - 11Kick-off on October 18, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Parken, København
The Footlab model makes FC Copenhagen the favourite at 49%, against 23% for a draw and 27% for Aarhus. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win FC Copenhagen vs Aarhus?
A very open match: only 42 Elo points separate FC Copenhagen (2,116) and Aarhus (2,074).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, FC Copenhagen have 10 wins, 3 draws and 2 defeats; Aarhus have 6, 4 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Viborg(away) | 0-4 | Superliga |
| Aug 20, 2026 | Inter Turku(away) | 0-0 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Randers FC(away) | 4-0 | Superliga |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Debreceni VSC(home) | 5-1 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Debreceni VSC(away) | 3-0 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Odense(home) | 2-2 | Superliga |
| Aug 20, 2026 | Benfica(away) | 1-3 | UEFA Europa League |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Viborg(away) | 1-2 | Superliga |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Sabah FA(away) | 0-4 | UEFA Champions League |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Sabah FA(home) | 2-1 | UEFA Champions League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 FC Copenhagen win(s), 0 draw(s), 4 Aarhus win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 1, 2026 | Aarhus 4-0 FC Copenhagen | Friendlies Clubs |
| Nov 30, 2025 | Aarhus 2-0 FC Copenhagen | Superliga |
| Aug 8, 2025 | FC Copenhagen 2-3 Aarhus | Superliga |
| Apr 27, 2025 | Aarhus 1-3 FC Copenhagen | Superliga |
| Apr 21, 2025 | FC Copenhagen 3-1 Aarhus | Superliga |
| Feb 8, 2025 | Aarhus 4-3 FC Copenhagen | Friendlies Clubs |
Last archived meeting: Aarhus vs FC Copenhagen on Feb 1, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
FC Copenhagen score 2.6 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Aarhus score 1.9 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 65% probability of over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Copenhagen | 2.6 | 1.3 | 4 | 9/15 | 12/15 |
| Aarhus | 1.9 | 1.6 | 4 | 10/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
FC Copenhagen sit 5th in Superliga (9 points from 4 matches) and Aarhus sit 10th (3 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | FC Copenhagen | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 7 | 9 |
| 10 | Aarhus | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 7 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for FC Copenhagen vs Aarhus?
- The Footlab model makes FC Copenhagen the favourite at 49%, against 23% for a draw and 27% for Aarhus.
- Where and when is FC Copenhagen vs Aarhus played?
- FC Copenhagen vs Aarhus is played on October 18, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Parken, in the Superliga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 65% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.