AC Milan vs Genoa: prediction and stats
Serie ARegular Season - 25Kick-off on February 21, 2027 at 05:30 PM (UTC)Stadio Giuseppe Meazza, Milano
The Footlab model makes AC Milan the favourite at 52%, against 26% for a draw and 23% for Genoa. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win AC Milan vs Genoa?
AC Milan starts as the favourite with a 165-point Elo edge (2,136 vs 1,971).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, AC Milan have 5 wins, 3 draws and 7 defeats; Genoa have 5, 3 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Torino(away) | 2-1 | Serie A |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Manchester United(away) | 4-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Chelsea(away) | 0-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Inter(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Celtic(away) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Napoli(home) | 0-2 | Serie A |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Ascoli(home) | 4-1 | Coppa Italia |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Deportivo La Coruna(home) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Bournemouth(away) | 1-10 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Leicester(away) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 AC Milan win(s), 3 draw(s), 0 Genoa win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 17, 2026 | Genoa 1-2 AC Milan | Serie A |
| Jan 8, 2026 | AC Milan 1-1 Genoa | Serie A |
| May 5, 2025 | Genoa 1-2 AC Milan | Serie A |
| Dec 15, 2024 | AC Milan 0-0 Genoa | Serie A |
| May 5, 2024 | AC Milan 3-3 Genoa | Serie A |
| Oct 7, 2023 | Genoa 0-1 AC Milan | Serie A |
How many goals should we expect?
AC Milan score 1.2 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; Genoa score 1.0 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AC Milan | 1.2 | 1.6 | 2 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
| Genoa | 1.0 | 1.7 | 3 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
AC Milan sit 4th in Serie A (3 points from 1 matches) and Genoa sit 18th (0 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | AC Milan | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 18 | Genoa | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for AC Milan vs Genoa?
- The Footlab model makes AC Milan the favourite at 52%, against 26% for a draw and 23% for Genoa.
- Where and when is AC Milan vs Genoa played?
- AC Milan vs Genoa is played on February 21, 2027 at 05:30 PM (UTC) at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza, in the Serie A.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.