Genoa vs AC Milan: prediction and stats
Serie ARegular Season - 11Kick-off on November 8, 2026 at 05:30 PM (UTC)Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris, Genova
The Footlab model makes AC Milan the favourite at 43%, against 27% for a draw and 29% for Genoa. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Genoa vs AC Milan?
AC Milan starts as the favourite with a 158-point Elo edge (2,148 vs 1,991).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Genoa have 5 wins, 3 draws and 7 defeats; AC Milan have 5, 3 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Napoli(home) | 0-2 | Serie A |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Ascoli(home) | 4-1 | Coppa Italia |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Deportivo La Coruna(home) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Bournemouth(away) | 1-10 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Leicester(away) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Torino(away) | 2-1 | Serie A |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Manchester United(away) | 4-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Chelsea(away) | 0-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Inter(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Celtic(away) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Genoa win(s), 3 draw(s), 3 AC Milan win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 17, 2026 | Genoa 1-2 AC Milan | Serie A |
| Jan 8, 2026 | AC Milan 1-1 Genoa | Serie A |
| May 5, 2025 | Genoa 1-2 AC Milan | Serie A |
| Dec 15, 2024 | AC Milan 0-0 Genoa | Serie A |
| May 5, 2024 | AC Milan 3-3 Genoa | Serie A |
| Oct 7, 2023 | Genoa 0-1 AC Milan | Serie A |
How many goals should we expect?
Genoa score 1.0 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; AC Milan score 1.2 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 49% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Genoa | 1.0 | 1.7 | 3 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
| AC Milan | 1.2 | 1.6 | 2 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Genoa sit 18th in Serie A (0 points from 1 matches) and AC Milan sit 4th (3 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | AC Milan | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 18 | Genoa | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Genoa vs AC Milan?
- The Footlab model makes AC Milan the favourite at 43%, against 27% for a draw and 29% for Genoa.
- Where and when is Genoa vs AC Milan played?
- Genoa vs AC Milan is played on November 8, 2026 at 05:30 PM (UTC) at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris, in the Serie A.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 49% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.