Genoa vs AC Milan: prediction and stats
Serie ARegular Season - 11Kick-off on November 8, 2026 at 05:30 PM (UTC)Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris, Genova
The Footlab AI model makes AC Milan the favourite at 46%, against 28% for a draw and 26% for Genoa. The most likely score is 1-1. If AC Milan wins, the most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,365 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 13, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Genoa vs AC Milan?
AC Milan starts as the favourite with a 188-point Elo edge (2,140 vs 1,952).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Genoa vs AC Milan
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Genoa
3-4-2-1- 18M. Osmajić
- 32M. Frendrup
- 3K. Ehizibue
- 77M. Ellertsson
- 10Junior Messias
- 92S. El Shaarawy
- 25H. Traorè
- 5L. Østigård
- 34S. Otoa
- 22J. Vásquez
- 1J. Bijlow
AC Milan
3-4-2-1- 9Gonçalo Ramos
- 21S. Chukwueze
- 2P. Estupiñán
- 12A. Rabiot
- 80Y. Musah
- 22Diego Moreira
- 14L. Modrić
- 31S. Pavlović
- 34Mario Gila
- 5K. De Winter
- 16M. Maignan
Known absences
C. PulišićOut · Calf injury
Computed on October 13, 2026 at 11:11 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Genoa have 5 wins, 2 draws and 8 defeats; AC Milan have 5, 5 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Fiorentina(home) | 2-1 | Serie A |
| Oct 2, 2026 | Rapid(away) | 0-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Parma(away) | 1-2 | Serie A |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Sudtirol(home) | 1-0 | Coppa Italia |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Frosinone(home) | 1-1 | Serie A |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Sassuolo(away) | 1-1 | Serie A |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Lecce(home) | 3-0 | Serie A |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Benfica(home) | 0-2 | UEFA Europa League |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Lazio(away) | 2-2 | Serie A |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Juventus(away) | 1-1 | Serie A |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Genoa wins, 3 draws, 3 AC Milan wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 17, 2026 | Genoa 1-2 AC Milan | Serie A |
| Jan 8, 2026 | AC Milan 1-1 Genoa | Serie A |
| May 5, 2025 | Genoa 1-2 AC Milan | Serie A |
| Dec 15, 2024 | AC Milan 0-0 Genoa | Serie A |
| May 5, 2024 | AC Milan 3-3 Genoa | Serie A |
| Oct 7, 2023 | Genoa 0-1 AC Milan | Serie A |
How many goals should we expect?
Genoa score 1.1 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; AC Milan score 1.5 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 45% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Genoa | 1.1 | 1.9 | 2 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
| AC Milan | 1.5 | 1.5 | 2 | 10/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Genoa sit 17th in Serie A (4 points from 6 matches) and AC Milan sit 5th (12 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | AC Milan | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 11 | 5 | 12 |
| 17 | Genoa | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 11 | 4 |
A question about Genoa vs AC Milan?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Genoa vs AC Milan?
- The Footlab AI model makes AC Milan the favourite at 46%, against 28% for a draw and 26% for Genoa.
- Where and when is Genoa vs AC Milan played?
- Genoa vs AC Milan is played on November 8, 2026 at 05:30 PM (UTC) at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris, in the Serie A.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 45% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.