AC Milan vs Napoli: prediction and stats
Serie ARegular Season - 32Kick-off on April 18, 2027 at 04:30 PM (UTC)Stadio Giuseppe Meazza, Milano
The Footlab AI model makes Napoli the favourite at 37%, against 28% for a draw and 35% for AC Milan. The most likely score is 1-1. If Napoli wins, the most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,404 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 15, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win AC Milan vs Napoli?
A very open match: only 2 Elo points separate AC Milan (2,065) and Napoli (2,067).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for AC Milan vs Napoli
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
AC Milan
3-4-2-1- 9Gonçalo Ramos
- 12A. Rabiot
- 21S. Chukwueze
- 2P. Estupiñán
- 80Y. Musah
- 22Diego Moreira
- 70A. Cissè
- 31S. Pavlović
- 34Mario Gila
- 5K. De Winter
- 16M. Maignan
Napoli
3-4-2-1- 19R. Højlund
- 22G. Di Lorenzo
- 11K. De Bruyne
- 68S. Lobotka
- 21M. Politano
- 70N. Lang
- 37L. Spinazzola
- 13Amir Rrahmani
- 16Rafa Marín
- 5B. Badiashile
- 1A. Meret
Computed on October 15, 2026 at 06:55 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, AC Milan have 6 wins, 5 draws and 4 defeats; Napoli have 8, 2 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | Red Bull Salzburg(away) | 4-0 | UEFA Europa League |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Sassuolo(away) | 1-1 | Serie A |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Lecce(home) | 3-0 | Serie A |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Benfica(home) | 0-2 | UEFA Europa League |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Lazio(away) | 2-2 | Serie A |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2026 | Villarreal(away) | 1-3 | UEFA Champions League |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Frosinone(home) | 3-0 | Serie A |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Fiorentina(away) | 1-1 | Serie A |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Bologna(home) | 1-0 | Serie A |
| Sep 9, 2026 | Arsenal(home) | 0-1 | UEFA Champions League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 AC Milan wins, 0 draws, 4 Napoli wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 6, 2026 | Napoli 1-0 AC Milan | Serie A |
| Dec 18, 2025 | Napoli 2-0 AC Milan | Super Cup |
| Sep 28, 2025 | AC Milan 2-1 Napoli | Serie A |
| Mar 30, 2025 | Napoli 2-1 AC Milan | Serie A |
| Oct 29, 2024 | AC Milan 0-2 Napoli | Serie A |
| Feb 11, 2024 | AC Milan 1-0 Napoli | Serie A |
How many goals should we expect?
AC Milan score 1.8 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Napoli score 1.8 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 47% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AC Milan | 1.8 | 1.4 | 3 | 10/15 | 10/15 |
| Napoli | 1.8 | 1.1 | 6 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
AC Milan sit 5th in Serie A (12 points from 6 matches) and Napoli sit 8th (10 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | AC Milan | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 11 | 5 | 12 |
| 8 | Napoli | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 6 | 10 |
A question about AC Milan vs Napoli?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for AC Milan vs Napoli?
- The Footlab AI model makes Napoli the favourite at 37%, against 28% for a draw and 35% for AC Milan.
- Where and when is AC Milan vs Napoli played?
- AC Milan vs Napoli is played on April 18, 2027 at 04:30 PM (UTC) at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza, in the Serie A.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 47% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.