AC Milan vs Napoli: prediction and stats
Serie ARegular Season - 32Kick-off on April 18, 2027 at 04:30 PM (UTC)Stadio Giuseppe Meazza, Milano
The Footlab model makes Napoli the favourite at 36%, against 29% for a draw and 35% for AC Milan. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win AC Milan vs Napoli?
A very open match: only 27 Elo points separate AC Milan (2,136) and Napoli (2,163).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, AC Milan have 5 wins, 3 draws and 7 defeats; Napoli have 9, 3 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Torino(away) | 2-1 | Serie A |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Manchester United(away) | 4-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Chelsea(away) | 0-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Inter(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Celtic(away) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Genoa(away) | 2-0 | Serie A |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Aris Thessalonikis(home) | 6-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Celta Vigo(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Osasuna(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Carrarese(home) | 2-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 AC Milan win(s), 0 draw(s), 4 Napoli win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 6, 2026 | Napoli 1-0 AC Milan | Serie A |
| Dec 18, 2025 | Napoli 2-0 AC Milan | Super Cup |
| Sep 28, 2025 | AC Milan 2-1 Napoli | Serie A |
| Mar 30, 2025 | Napoli 2-1 AC Milan | Serie A |
| Oct 29, 2024 | AC Milan 0-2 Napoli | Serie A |
| Feb 11, 2024 | AC Milan 1-0 Napoli | Serie A |
How many goals should we expect?
AC Milan score 1.2 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; Napoli score 1.8 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 46% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AC Milan | 1.2 | 1.6 | 2 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
| Napoli | 1.8 | 0.9 | 8 | 6/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
AC Milan sit 4th in Serie A (3 points from 1 matches) and Napoli sit 2nd (3 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Napoli | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 4 | AC Milan | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for AC Milan vs Napoli?
- The Footlab model makes Napoli the favourite at 36%, against 29% for a draw and 35% for AC Milan.
- Where and when is AC Milan vs Napoli played?
- AC Milan vs Napoli is played on April 18, 2027 at 04:30 PM (UTC) at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza, in the Serie A.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 46% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.