AS Roma vs Lazio: prediction and stats
Serie ARegular Season - 32Kick-off on April 18, 2027 at 04:30 PM (UTC)Stadio Olimpico, Roma
The Footlab model makes AS Roma the favourite at 47%, against 28% for a draw and 25% for Lazio. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win AS Roma vs Lazio?
AS Roma starts as the favourite with a 104-point Elo edge (2,169 vs 2,064).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, AS Roma have 9 wins, 3 draws and 3 defeats; Lazio have 9, 2 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | Fiorentina(home) | 4-0 | Serie A |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Borussia Dortmund(away) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Brighton(away) | 0-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Newport County(away) | 4-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Cardiff(away) | 1-4 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | Bologna(away) | 1-0 | Serie A |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Mantova(home) | 0-2 | Coppa Italia |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Frosinone(away) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Ostia Mare(home) | 4-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Ascoli(away) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 AS Roma win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Lazio win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 17, 2026 | AS Roma 2-0 Lazio | Serie A |
| Sep 21, 2025 | Lazio 0-1 AS Roma | Serie A |
| Apr 13, 2025 | Lazio 1-1 AS Roma | Serie A |
| Jan 5, 2025 | AS Roma 2-0 Lazio | Serie A |
| Apr 6, 2024 | AS Roma 1-0 Lazio | Serie A |
| Jan 10, 2024 | Lazio 1-0 AS Roma | Coppa Italia |
How many goals should we expect?
AS Roma score 2.3 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Lazio score 2.1 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 45% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AS Roma | 2.3 | 1.4 | 7 | 7/15 | 10/15 |
| Lazio | 2.1 | 1.3 | 4 | 7/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
AS Roma sit 1st in Serie A (3 points from 1 matches) and Lazio sit 9th (3 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AS Roma | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 3 |
| 9 | Lazio | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for AS Roma vs Lazio?
- The Footlab model makes AS Roma the favourite at 47%, against 28% for a draw and 25% for Lazio.
- Where and when is AS Roma vs Lazio played?
- AS Roma vs Lazio is played on April 18, 2027 at 04:30 PM (UTC) at Stadio Olimpico, in the Serie A.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 45% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.