Academica vs Amarante: prediction and stats
Taça de PortugalRound of 64Kick-off on October 17, 2026 at 07:00 PM (UTC)Estádio EFAPEL, Coimbra
The Footlab AI model makes Academica the favourite at 55%, against 23% for a draw and 22% for Amarante. The most likely score is 1-1. If Academica wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,365 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 13, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Academica vs Amarante?
On Elo ratings, Academica has 2,070 points and Amarante 2,057.
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Academica vs Amarante
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Academica
4-3-3- 19Afonso Rodrigues
- 8K. Zohi
- 10I. Faure
- 20J. Sinisterra
- 25L. Pierre
- 92A. Coundoul
- 5Leandro Silva
- 3Ricardo Teixeira
- 2Xavi
- 22Hélder Lopes
- 12Victor Braga
Amarante
3-4-3- 5Joao Ricardo
- 88Rúben Alves
- 10M. Costa
- 26A. Zangre
- 8Tokinho
- 78Simão Silva
- 6Rodrigo Guedes
- 2Gonçalo Cunha
- 3Feliciano Mendes
- 28Diogo Costa
- 65Didi
Computed on October 13, 2026 at 06:15 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Academica have 7 wins, 2 draws and 6 defeats; Amarante have 5, 4 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | União de Leiria(away) | 2-0 | Segunda Liga |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Real(away) | 4-1 | Taça de Portugal |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Benfica B(home) | 0-3 | Segunda Liga |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Penafiel(away) | 1-4 | Segunda Liga |
| Aug 29, 2026 | Lusitânia Lourosa(home) | 0-2 | Segunda Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Portimonense(home) | 1-2 | Segunda Liga |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Ponte da Barca(away) | 2-0 | Taça de Portugal |
| Sep 13, 2026 | União de Leiria(home) | 2-2 | Segunda Liga |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Leixoes(away) | 1-3 | Segunda Liga |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Benfica B(home) | 1-0 | Segunda Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 3 meetings: 0 Academica wins, 2 draws, 1 Amarante win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 12, 2026 | Academica 1-1 Amarante | Liga 3 |
| Mar 29, 2026 | Amarante 1-1 Academica | Liga 3 |
| Oct 22, 2023 | Amarante 1-0 Academica | Taça de Portugal |
Last archived meeting: Academica vs Amarante on Apr 12, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Academica score 1.5 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Amarante score 1.3 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 63% probability of over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Academica | 1.5 | 1.5 | 5 | 6/15 | 9/15 |
| Amarante | 1.3 | 1.2 | 5 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
A question about Academica vs Amarante?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Academica vs Amarante?
- The Footlab AI model makes Academica the favourite at 55%, against 23% for a draw and 22% for Amarante.
- Where and when is Academica vs Amarante played?
- Academica vs Amarante is played on October 17, 2026 at 07:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio EFAPEL, in the Taça de Portugal.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 63% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.