Chaves vs Os Marialvas: prediction and stats
Taça de PortugalRound of 64Kick-off on October 16, 2026 at 07:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira, Chaves
The Footlab AI model makes Chaves the favourite at 42%, against 25% for a draw and 33% for Os Marialvas. The most likely score is 1-1. If Chaves wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,365 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 14, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Chaves vs Os Marialvas?
A very open match: only 25 Elo points separate Chaves (1,969) and Os Marialvas (1,944).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Chaves vs Os Marialvas
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Chaves
4-3-3- 10André Rodrigues
- 30Costinha
- 17Roberto
- 19Gilberto García
- 42Aílson Tavares
- 16D. Yearwood
- 23Léo Alabá
- 34Ricardo Alves
- 33Tiago Simões
- 7R. Esajas
- 1João Valido
Os Marialvas
Not enough data to predict the Os Marialvas lineup.
Computed on October 14, 2026 at 12:36 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Chaves have 5 wins, 2 draws and 8 defeats; Os Marialvas have 8, 5 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Lusitânia Lourosa(away) | 1-1 | Segunda Liga |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Farense(away) | 0-4 | Segunda Liga |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Guarda(away) | 3-2 | Taça de Portugal |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Feirense(home) | 1-0 | Segunda Liga |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Felgueiras 1932(away) | 1-2 | Segunda Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Sertanense(home) | 0-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Ovarense(away) | 1-0 | Taça de Portugal |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Nazarenos(away) | 3-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Fátima(home) | 3-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Aug 30, 2026 | AD Fornos Algodres(away) | 4-0 | Taça de Portugal |
How many goals should we expect?
Chaves score 1.4 and concede 1.8 goals per match over their last 15; Os Marialvas score 1.3 and concede 0.3. The model gives a 62% probability of over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chaves | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1 | 10/15 | 10/15 |
| Os Marialvas | 1.3 | 0.3 | 11 | 3/15 | 4/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
A question about Chaves vs Os Marialvas?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Chaves vs Os Marialvas?
- The Footlab AI model makes Chaves the favourite at 42%, against 25% for a draw and 33% for Os Marialvas.
- Where and when is Chaves vs Os Marialvas played?
- Chaves vs Os Marialvas is played on October 16, 2026 at 07:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira, in the Taça de Portugal.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 62% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.