Academica vs Leixoes: prediction and stats
Segunda LigaRegular Season - 8Kick-off on October 25, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estádio EFAPEL, Coimbra
The Footlab model makes Academica the favourite at 49%, against 27% for a draw and 24% for Leixoes. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Academica vs Leixoes?
Academica starts as the favourite with a 112-point Elo edge (2,027 vs 1,916).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Academica have 7 wins, 5 draws and 3 defeats; Leixoes have 10, 2 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Tondela(away) | 2-0 | Segunda Liga |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Feirense(home) | 1-0 | Segunda Liga |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Chaves(away) | 4-1 | Segunda Liga |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Caldas(away) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 31, 2026 | União Santarém(away) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | União de Leiria(home) | 2-4 | Segunda Liga |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Tondela(home) | 1-0 | Segunda Liga |
| Aug 10, 2026 | Benfica B(away) | 0-1 | Segunda Liga |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Casa Pia(home) | 6-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Vizela(home) | 3-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Academica win(s), 2 draw(s), 1 Leixoes win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 30, 2022 | Academica 1-0 Leixoes | Segunda Liga |
| Aug 22, 2021 | Leixoes 2-1 Academica | Segunda Liga |
| May 22, 2021 | Leixoes 1-2 Academica | Segunda Liga |
| Jan 26, 2021 | Academica 1-1 Leixoes | Segunda Liga |
| Jan 26, 2020 | Leixoes 1-1 Academica | Segunda Liga |
| Aug 11, 2019 | Academica 3-2 Leixoes | Segunda Liga |
How many goals should we expect?
Academica score 1.6 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Leixoes score 2.5 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 47% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Academica | 1.6 | 1.3 | 5 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
| Leixoes | 2.5 | 1.4 | 4 | 10/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Academica sit 1st in Segunda Liga (9 points from 3 matches) and Leixoes sit 10th (3 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Academica | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 9 |
| 10 | Leixoes | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Academica vs Leixoes?
- The Footlab model makes Academica the favourite at 49%, against 27% for a draw and 24% for Leixoes.
- Where and when is Academica vs Leixoes played?
- Academica vs Leixoes is played on October 25, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio EFAPEL, in the Segunda Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 47% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.