AVS vs Tondela: prediction and stats
Segunda LigaRegular Season - 8Kick-off on October 25, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Clube Desportivo das Aves, Vila das Aves
The Footlab model makes AVS the favourite at 36%, against 30% for a draw and 35% for Tondela. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win AVS vs Tondela?
A very open match: only 4 Elo points separate AVS (1,931) and Tondela (1,935).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, AVS have 4 wins, 8 draws and 3 defeats; Tondela have 5, 3 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Chaves(away) | 2-2 | Segunda Liga |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Felgueiras 1932(away) | 1-1 | Segunda Liga |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Sporting CP B(home) | 0-1 | Segunda Liga |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Trofense(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Vianense(home) | 3-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Academica(home) | 0-2 | Segunda Liga |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Leixoes(away) | 0-1 | Segunda Liga |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Amarante(home) | 2-1 | Segunda Liga |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Rio Ave(away) | 1-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 29, 2026 | São João Ver(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 0 AVS win(s), 2 draw(s), 2 Tondela win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 21, 2026 | Tondela 0-0 AVS | Primeira Liga |
| Nov 2, 2025 | AVS 2-2 Tondela | Primeira Liga |
| May 19, 2024 | AVS 0-1 Tondela | Segunda Liga |
| Jan 14, 2024 | Tondela 3-2 AVS | Segunda Liga |
How many goals should we expect?
AVS score 1.5 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Tondela score 1.0 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 42% probability of over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AVS | 1.5 | 1.3 | 3 | 10/15 | 8/15 |
| Tondela | 1.0 | 1.3 | 3 | 8/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
AVS sit 13th in Segunda Liga (2 points from 3 matches) and Tondela sit 11th (3 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Tondela | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 3 |
| 13 | AVS | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 2 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for AVS vs Tondela?
- The Footlab model makes AVS the favourite at 36%, against 30% for a draw and 35% for Tondela.
- Where and when is AVS vs Tondela played?
- AVS vs Tondela is played on October 25, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Clube Desportivo das Aves, in the Segunda Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 42% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.