Accrington ST vs Sunderland U21: prediction and stats
EFL TrophyGroup North - 1Kick-off on September 2, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC)Wham Stadium, Accrington, Lancashire
The Footlab model makes Sunderland U21 the favourite at 45%, against 24% for a draw and 31% for Accrington ST. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Accrington ST vs Sunderland U21?
Sunderland U21 starts as the favourite with a 177-point Elo edge (1,849 vs 1,672).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Accrington ST have 4 wins, 5 draws and 6 defeats; Sunderland U21 have 9, 2 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Exeter City(away) | 0-2 | League Two |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Colchester(home) | 2-2 | League Two |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Crewe(away) | 1-2 | League Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Sheffield Wednesday(home) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Bury(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 19, 2026 | Jong PSV U21(home) | 1-1 | Premier League International Cup |
| May 14, 2026 | Burnley U21(home) | 1-2 | Premier League Cup |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Manchester United U21(away) | 2-3 | Premier League 2 Division One |
| Apr 15, 2026 | Blackburn Rovers U21(home) | 4-2 | Premier League Cup |
| Apr 6, 2026 | Derby County U21(away) | 1-2 | Premier League 2 Division One |
How many goals should we expect?
Accrington ST score 1.1 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Sunderland U21 score 2.4 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 66% probability of over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accrington ST | 1.1 | 1.3 | 6 | 6/15 | 8/15 |
| Sunderland U21 | 2.4 | 1.6 | 2 | 12/15 | 12/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Accrington ST | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Accrington ST vs Sunderland U21?
- The Footlab model makes Sunderland U21 the favourite at 45%, against 24% for a draw and 31% for Accrington ST.
- Where and when is Accrington ST vs Sunderland U21 played?
- Accrington ST vs Sunderland U21 is played on September 2, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC) at Wham Stadium, in the EFL Trophy.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 66% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.