ADO '20 vs Excelsior '31: prediction and stats
Derde DivisieRegular Season - 9Kick-off on October 10, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Sportpark De Vlotter veld 1, Heemskerk
The Footlab AI model makes Excelsior '31 the favourite at 46%, against 25% for a draw and 29% for ADO '20. The most likely score is 1-1. If Excelsior '31 wins, the most likely score is 1-2.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 1,754 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 9, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win ADO '20 vs Excelsior '31?
A very open match: only 71 Elo points separate ADO '20 (1,743) and Excelsior '31 (1,815).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for ADO '20 vs Excelsior '31
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
ADO '20
4-3-3- 14Storm Holtkamp
- 16Eon Herman
- 29Tom Welboren
- 19Jesper de Vre
- 21Teun Groot
- 23D. Rienstra
- 2Mikael Schilling
- 3Oscar Wilffert
- 4Yaro Hirasingh
- 17Denzel Prijor
- 22Virgil Deen
Excelsior '31
Not enough data to predict the Excelsior '31 lineup.
Computed on October 9, 2026 at 01:42 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, ADO '20 have 6 wins, 2 draws and 7 defeats; Excelsior '31 have 10, 2 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 3, 2026 | Dovo(away) | 3-1 | Derde Divisie |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Hoogeveen(home) | 1-5 | Derde Divisie |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Purmersteijn(away) | 1-2 | Derde Divisie |
| Sep 13, 2026 | VV Scherpenzeel(home) | 0-1 | Derde Divisie |
| Sep 5, 2026 | SVZW(away) | 6-4 | Derde Divisie |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 3, 2026 | Sportlust '46(away) | 3-0 | Derde Divisie |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Dovo(home) | 3-0 | Derde Divisie |
| Sep 22, 2026 | AFC '34(home) | 4-3 | KNVB Beker |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Hoogeveen(away) | 2-0 | Derde Divisie |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Purmersteijn(home) | 1-1 | Derde Divisie |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 1 ADO '20 win, 0 draws, 1 Excelsior '31 win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 14, 2026 | Excelsior '31 2-0 ADO '20 | Derde Divisie |
| Oct 11, 2025 | ADO '20 2-0 Excelsior '31 | Derde Divisie |
Last archived meeting: Excelsior '31 vs ADO '20 on Mar 14, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
ADO '20 score 1.3 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; Excelsior '31 score 2.3 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 59% probability of over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ADO '20 | 1.3 | 1.9 | 4 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
| Excelsior '31 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 6 | 8/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
ADO '20 sit 11th in Derde Divisie (10 points from 8 matches) and Excelsior '31 sit 1st (19 points from 8 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Excelsior '31 | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 22 | 6 | 19 |
| 11 | ADO '20 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 15 | 18 | 10 |
A question about ADO '20 vs Excelsior '31?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for ADO '20 vs Excelsior '31?
- The Footlab AI model makes Excelsior '31 the favourite at 46%, against 25% for a draw and 29% for ADO '20.
- Where and when is ADO '20 vs Excelsior '31 played?
- ADO '20 vs Excelsior '31 is played on October 10, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Sportpark De Vlotter veld 1, in the Derde Divisie.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 59% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.