Excelsior '31 vs DVS 33 Ermelo: prediction and stats
Derde DivisieRegular Season - 16Kick-off on December 5, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC)Sportpark De Koerbelt, Rijssen
The Footlab AI model makes Excelsior '31 the favourite at 54%, against 23% for a draw and 23% for DVS 33 Ermelo. The most likely score is 1-1. If Excelsior '31 wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.6% of the 2,402 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 15, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Excelsior '31 vs DVS 33 Ermelo?
On Elo ratings, Excelsior '31 has 1,792 points and DVS 33 Ermelo 1,771.
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Excelsior '31 vs DVS 33 Ermelo
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Excelsior '31
Not enough data to predict the Excelsior '31 lineup.
DVS 33 Ermelo
3-4-3- 10Stef Nijland
- 7J. van Essen
- 11B. Roemeon
- 6R. Dekker
- 22M. Ahrens
- 3Tim Van de Berg
- 8Maarten van Dijk
- 5R. Baas
- 17Willard Timmerman
- 15T. van Diermen
- 32Largo Karrenbelt
Computed on October 15, 2026 at 02:49 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Excelsior '31 have 10 wins, 2 draws and 3 defeats; DVS 33 Ermelo have 3, 4 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | ADO '20(away) | 1-3 | Derde Divisie |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Sportlust '46(away) | 3-0 | Derde Divisie |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Dovo(home) | 3-0 | Derde Divisie |
| Sep 22, 2026 | AFC '34(home) | 4-3 | KNVB Beker |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Hoogeveen(away) | 2-0 | Derde Divisie |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Eemdijk(home) | 2-2 | Derde Divisie |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Hercules(away) | 0-1 | Derde Divisie |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Sportlust '46(home) | 1-2 | Derde Divisie |
| Sep 22, 2026 | GVVV Veenendaal(away) | 0-4 | KNVB Beker |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Hollandia(home) | 2-1 | Derde Divisie |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Excelsior '31 wins, 1 draw, 3 DVS 33 Ermelo wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 31, 2026 | DVS 33 Ermelo 1-2 Excelsior '31 | Derde Divisie |
| Sep 6, 2025 | Excelsior '31 0-1 DVS 33 Ermelo | Derde Divisie |
| Mar 15, 2025 | DVS 33 Ermelo 4-0 Excelsior '31 | Derde Divisie |
| Oct 12, 2024 | Excelsior '31 1-2 DVS 33 Ermelo | Derde Divisie |
| May 20, 2023 | Excelsior '31 4-0 DVS 33 Ermelo | Derde Divisie |
| Nov 26, 2022 | DVS 33 Ermelo 1-1 Excelsior '31 | Derde Divisie |
Last archived meeting: DVS 33 Ermelo vs Excelsior '31 on Jan 31, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Excelsior '31 score 2.3 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; DVS 33 Ermelo score 1.1 and concede 1.9. The model gives a 63% probability of over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Excelsior '31 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 6 | 8/15 | 10/15 |
| DVS 33 Ermelo | 1.1 | 1.9 | 1 | 9/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Excelsior '31 sit 5th in Derde Divisie (19 points from 9 matches) and DVS 33 Ermelo sit 13th (6 points from 9 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Excelsior '31 | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 23 | 9 | 19 |
| 13 | DVS 33 Ermelo | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 12 | 17 | 6 |
A question about Excelsior '31 vs DVS 33 Ermelo?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Excelsior '31 vs DVS 33 Ermelo?
- The Footlab AI model makes Excelsior '31 the favourite at 54%, against 23% for a draw and 23% for DVS 33 Ermelo.
- Where and when is Excelsior '31 vs DVS 33 Ermelo played?
- Excelsior '31 vs DVS 33 Ermelo is played on December 5, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC) at Sportpark De Koerbelt, in the Derde Divisie.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 63% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.