AEL vs Aris: prediction and stats
1. DivisionRegular Season - 7Kick-off on October 24, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Alphamega Stadium, Kolossi
The Footlab AI model makes AEL the favourite at 47%, against 26% for a draw and 27% for Aris. The most likely score is 1-1. If AEL wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,365 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 14, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win AEL vs Aris?
A very open match: only 79 Elo points separate AEL (1,841) and Aris (1,920).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for AEL vs Aris
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
AEL
4-2-3-1- 77F. Mughe
- 11L. Singh
- 20João Tavares
- 30G. Papageorgiou
- 6D. Zdravkovski
- 19I. Milosavljević
- 23Diogo Gomes
- 33E. Antoniou
- 22K. Neofytou
- 35Sérgio Conceição
- 1S. Kapino
Aris
4-2-3-1- 11R. Effaghe
- 29D. Gaustad
- 30Gustavo Pajé
- 70C. El Allachi
- 8C. Charalampous
- 22V. Nikolić
- 27J. Badelj
- 7Anderson Correia
- 17M. Matysik
- 20S. Yago
- 91M. Zadro
Computed on October 14, 2026 at 01:42 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, AEL have 8 wins, 2 draws and 5 defeats; Aris have 4, 2 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Omonia 29is Maiou(home) | 2-1 | 1. Division |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Pafos(away) | 2-0 | 1. Division |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Nea Salamis(home) | 2-1 | 1. Division |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Apoel Nicosia(away) | 0-6 | 1. Division |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Anorthosis(home) | 2-0 | 1. Division |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Olympiakos(away) | 2-1 | 1. Division |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Riga(home) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Karmiotissa(home) | 0-0 | 1. Division |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Krasava Ypsonas(away) | 1-0 | 1. Division |
| Sep 7, 2026 | Omonia Nicosia(home) | 1-4 | 1. Division |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 AEL wins, 0 draws, 4 Aris wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 1, 2026 | AEL 2-1 Aris | 1. Division |
| Jan 21, 2026 | Aris 0-1 AEL | Cup |
| Oct 19, 2025 | Aris 4-0 AEL | 1. Division |
| Feb 23, 2025 | Aris 4-0 AEL | 1. Division |
| Nov 24, 2024 | AEL 0-3 Aris | 1. Division |
| Feb 18, 2024 | Aris 4-0 AEL | 1. Division |
How many goals should we expect?
AEL score 1.6 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Aris score 1.1 and concede 1.8. The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AEL | 1.6 | 1.4 | 4 | 9/15 | 10/15 |
| Aris | 1.1 | 1.8 | 4 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
AEL sit 1st in 1. Division (12 points from 5 matches) and Aris sit 6th (8 points from 5 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AEL | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 8 | 12 |
| 6 | Aris | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 7 | 8 |
A question about AEL vs Aris?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for AEL vs Aris?
- The Footlab AI model makes AEL the favourite at 47%, against 26% for a draw and 27% for Aris.
- Where and when is AEL vs Aris played?
- AEL vs Aris is played on October 24, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Alphamega Stadium, in the 1. Division.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.