AEK Larnaca vs Omonia Nicosia: prediction and stats
1. DivisionRegular Season - 7Kick-off on October 24, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)AEK Arena - George Karapatakis, Lárnaka (Larnaca)
The Footlab model makes Omonia Nicosia the favourite at 50%, against 26% for a draw and 24% for AEK Larnaca. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win AEK Larnaca vs Omonia Nicosia?
A very open match: only 67 Elo points separate AEK Larnaca (2,011) and Omonia Nicosia (2,078).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, AEK Larnaca have 6 wins, 5 draws and 4 defeats; Omonia Nicosia have 10, 3 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 8, 2026 | Omonia Aradippou(home) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 30, 2026 | Beitar Jerusalem(away) | 3-2 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Jul 23, 2026 | Beitar Jerusalem(home) | 0-1 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Jul 16, 2026 | Apollon Limassol(away) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 4, 2026 | Helmond Sport(away) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | St. Truiden(away) | 0-1 | UEFA Europa League |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Lincoln Red Imps FC(home) | 1-0 | UEFA Europa League |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Lincoln Red Imps FC(away) | 1-1 | UEFA Europa League |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Kairat Almaty(away) | 0-1 | UEFA Champions League |
| Jul 22, 2026 | Kairat Almaty(home) | 1-0 | UEFA Champions League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 AEK Larnaca win(s), 2 draw(s), 3 Omonia Nicosia win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2026 | Omonia Nicosia 1-1 AEK Larnaca | 1. Division |
| Apr 14, 2026 | AEK Larnaca 0-2 Omonia Nicosia | 1. Division |
| Jan 14, 2026 | Omonia Nicosia 2-1 AEK Larnaca | Cup |
| Dec 15, 2025 | AEK Larnaca 1-1 Omonia Nicosia | 1. Division |
| Sep 17, 2025 | Omonia Nicosia 1-0 AEK Larnaca | 1. Division |
| May 7, 2025 | AEK Larnaca 2-1 Omonia Nicosia | Cup |
Last archived meeting: Omonia Nicosia vs AEK Larnaca on May 10, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
AEK Larnaca score 1.2 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Omonia Nicosia score 1.7 and concede 0.5. The model gives a 49% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AEK Larnaca | 1.2 | 1.1 | 4 | 7/15 | 4/15 |
| Omonia Nicosia | 1.7 | 0.5 | 9 | 4/15 | 4/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
AEK Larnaca sit 2nd in 1. Division (69 points from 36 matches) and Omonia Nicosia sit 1st (87 points from 36 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Omonia Nicosia | 36 | 27 | 6 | 3 | 88 | 24 | 87 |
| 2 | AEK Larnaca | 36 | 20 | 9 | 7 | 62 | 33 | 69 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for AEK Larnaca vs Omonia Nicosia?
- The Footlab model makes Omonia Nicosia the favourite at 50%, against 26% for a draw and 24% for AEK Larnaca.
- Where and when is AEK Larnaca vs Omonia Nicosia played?
- AEK Larnaca vs Omonia Nicosia is played on October 24, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at AEK Arena - George Karapatakis, in the 1. Division.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 49% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.