AEL vs Pafos: prediction and stats
1. DivisionRegular Season - 17Kick-off on January 9, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Alphamega Stadium, Kolossi
The Footlab AI model makes Pafos the favourite at 42%, against 27% for a draw and 31% for AEL. The most likely score is 1-1. If Pafos wins, the most likely score is 1-2.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,475 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 16, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win AEL vs Pafos?
Pafos starts as the favourite with a 198-point Elo edge (2,037 vs 1,839).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for AEL vs Pafos
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
AEL
4-2-3-1- 77F. Mughe
- 11L. Singh
- 20João Tavares
- 30G. Papageorgiou
- 6D. Zdravkovski
- 19I. Milosavljević
- 23Diogo Gomes
- 33E. Antoniou
- 22K. Neofytou
- 35Sérgio Conceição
- 1S. Kapino
Pafos
4-3-3- 18Lelê
- 8Domingos Quina
- 20Biel
- 88Pêpê Rodrigues
- 26I. Šunjić
- 30V. Dragomir
- 4David Luiz
- 14N. Ioannou
- 3S. Mmaee
- 7Bruno Felipe
- 99R. Majecki
Computed on October 16, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, AEL have 8 wins, 2 draws and 5 defeats; Pafos have 6, 3 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Omonia 29is Maiou(home) | 2-1 | 1. Division |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Pafos(away) | 2-0 | 1. Division |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Nea Salamis(home) | 2-1 | 1. Division |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Apoel Nicosia(away) | 0-6 | 1. Division |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Anorthosis(home) | 2-0 | 1. Division |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | Atalanta(away) | 1-3 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Anorthosis(away) | 3-1 | 1. Division |
| Sep 18, 2026 | AEL(home) | 0-2 | 1. Division |
| Sep 13, 2026 | AEK Larnaca(away) | 1-0 | 1. Division |
| Sep 7, 2026 | Olympiakos(home) | 0-0 | 1. Division |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 AEL win, 0 draws, 5 Pafos wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 18, 2026 | Pafos 0-2 AEL | 1. Division |
| Apr 22, 2026 | Pafos 3-1 AEL | Cup |
| Apr 8, 2026 | AEL 1-2 Pafos | Cup |
| Feb 15, 2026 | AEL 0-1 Pafos | 1. Division |
| Nov 2, 2025 | Pafos 1-0 AEL | 1. Division |
| Jan 6, 2025 | Pafos 4-0 AEL | 1. Division |
How many goals should we expect?
AEL score 1.6 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Pafos score 1.4 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 52% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AEL | 1.6 | 1.4 | 4 | 9/15 | 10/15 |
| Pafos | 1.4 | 1.3 | 5 | 6/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
AEL sit 2nd in 1. Division (12 points from 5 matches) and Pafos sit 4th (10 points from 5 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | AEL | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 8 | 12 |
| 4 | Pafos | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 3 | 10 |
A question about AEL vs Pafos?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for AEL vs Pafos?
- The Footlab AI model makes Pafos the favourite at 42%, against 27% for a draw and 31% for AEL.
- Where and when is AEL vs Pafos played?
- AEL vs Pafos is played on January 9, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Alphamega Stadium, in the 1. Division.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 52% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.