AF Elbasani vs Egnatia Rrogozhinë: prediction and stats
SuperligaRegular Season - 4Kick-off on September 12, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Elbasan Arena, Elbasan
The Footlab model makes AF Elbasani the favourite at 41%, against 26% for a draw and 33% for Egnatia Rrogozhinë. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win AF Elbasani vs Egnatia Rrogozhinë?
A very open match: only 45 Elo points separate AF Elbasani (1,812) and Egnatia Rrogozhinë (1,857).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, AF Elbasani have 5 wins, 5 draws and 5 defeats; Egnatia Rrogozhinë have 6, 4 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Laci(away) | 1-1 | Superliga |
| Jul 16, 2026 | Bate Borisov(away) | 0-0 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Jul 7, 2026 | Bate Borisov(home) | 1-1 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| May 31, 2026 | Vllaznia Shkodër(away) | 2-1 | Superliga |
| May 24, 2026 | Dinamo Tirana(home) | 3-0 | Superliga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Lillestrom(home) | 0-0 | UEFA Europa League |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Shamrock Rovers(home) | 5-1 | UEFA Europa League |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Shamrock Rovers(away) | 1-3 | UEFA Europa League |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Celje(away) | 1-1 | UEFA Champions League |
| Jul 22, 2026 | Celje(home) | 3-3 | UEFA Champions League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 AF Elbasani win(s), 4 draw(s), 1 Egnatia Rrogozhinë win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 17, 2026 | AF Elbasani 0-4 Egnatia Rrogozhinë | Superliga |
| Apr 22, 2026 | AF Elbasani 1-1 Egnatia Rrogozhinë | Cup |
| Apr 8, 2026 | Egnatia Rrogozhinë 1-1 AF Elbasani | Cup |
| Mar 20, 2026 | AF Elbasani 0-0 Egnatia Rrogozhinë | Superliga |
| Jan 18, 2026 | Egnatia Rrogozhinë 2-2 AF Elbasani | Superliga |
| Nov 9, 2025 | AF Elbasani 1-0 Egnatia Rrogozhinë | Superliga |
Last archived meeting: AF Elbasani vs Egnatia Rrogozhinë on May 17, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
AF Elbasani score 1.5 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; Egnatia Rrogozhinë score 2.1 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 54% probability of over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AF Elbasani | 1.5 | 1.6 | 3 | 11/15 | 10/15 |
| Egnatia Rrogozhinë | 2.1 | 1.4 | 4 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
AF Elbasani sit 2nd in Superliga (62 points from 36 matches) and Egnatia Rrogozhinë sit 3rd (57 points from 36 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | AF Elbasani | 36 | 17 | 11 | 8 | 48 | 37 | 62 |
| 3 | Egnatia Rrogozhinë | 36 | 16 | 9 | 11 | 42 | 34 | 57 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for AF Elbasani vs Egnatia Rrogozhinë?
- The Footlab model makes AF Elbasani the favourite at 41%, against 26% for a draw and 33% for Egnatia Rrogozhinë.
- Where and when is AF Elbasani vs Egnatia Rrogozhinë played?
- AF Elbasani vs Egnatia Rrogozhinë is played on September 12, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Elbasan Arena, in the Superliga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 54% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.